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周日酒类销售合法化是否增加了美国的犯罪率?来自七个州的证据。

Did Legalization of Sunday Alcohol Sales Increase Crime in the United States? Evidence From Seven States.

机构信息

Department of Economics, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, New York.

出版信息

J Stud Alcohol Drugs. 2018 Nov;79(6):816-825. doi: 10.15288/jsad.2018.79.816.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

This study investigates the impact of the legalization of Sunday alcohol sales on several different types of criminal activity in the United States.

METHOD

The 2000-2010 data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) for seven states (n = 1,746,249) and difference-in-differences type models are used to estimate the effect of the legalization of Sunday alcohol sales on different types of criminal activity.

RESULTS

States that legalized Sunday sales of alcohol experienced up to a 16% to 23% increase in the total number of violent and property crimes committed on Sundays (p < .01). However, the aggregate impact of this policy change on crimes committed on all days of the week is not significant because of either positive or statistically insignificant spillover effects of the repeal of Sunday alcohol sales bans on crimes committed on Mondays through Saturdays. These results are robust under alternative model specifications.

CONCLUSIONS

We find evidence that the negative effects of legalizing Sunday alcohol sales on criminal activity are day specific, and the overall crime trends are not affected by this policy change. These findings are particularly important given the ongoing public policy debates about the relevancy of the restrictions on Sunday sales of alcohol at off-premise locations.

摘要

目的

本研究调查了美国周日酒类销售合法化对几种不同类型犯罪活动的影响。

方法

本研究使用了联邦调查局全国基于事件报告系统(NIBRS)的 2000-2010 年七个州的数据(n=1,746,249)和差分模型,以估计周日酒类销售合法化对不同类型犯罪活动的影响。

结果

合法销售周日酒类的州在周日发生的暴力和财产犯罪总数增加了 16%至 23%(p<.01)。然而,由于周日酒类销售禁令的废除对周一至周六发生的犯罪活动产生了积极或统计学上无显著影响的溢出效应,这种政策变化对所有工作日发生的犯罪活动的总影响并不显著。在替代模型规范下,这些结果是稳健的。

结论

我们发现有证据表明,周日酒类销售合法化对犯罪活动的负面影响是特定于日期的,而且这种政策变化并没有影响整体犯罪趋势。鉴于关于非现场销售场所周日酒类销售限制的相关性的持续公共政策辩论,这些发现尤为重要。

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