School of Public Health, Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota.
J Stud Alcohol Drugs. 2018 Nov;79(6):826-834. doi: 10.15288/jsad.2018.79.826.
We evaluated the effects of outlet and small area level malt liquor policies on crime in 10 U.S. cities and hypothesized that more restrictive malt liquor policies would be associated with greater reductions in crime.
We used a pooled time-series study design (i.e., panel regression) with comparison areas to test our hypothesis. Quarterly crime rates in targeted areas were compared 3 years before and after policy adoption. Four crime outcomes were analyzed: Selected Part II crimes, assaults, vandalism/property damage, and disorderly conduct. Both the presence and absence of a malt liquor policy (yes, no) and degree of restrictiveness of the malt liquor policy were assessed using a newly created measure of malt liquor policy restrictiveness developed by the investigators. Results were analyzed using a series of linear mixed models.
Adoption of malt liquor policies was not associated with Part II selected crimes. For individual crimes (e.g., assaults, vandalism, disorderly conduct), we found mixed results as more restrictive malt liquor policies were significantly associated with decreases as well as increases in crime. In general, the evaluated policies were considered to be not highly restrictive.
Our findings suggest that malt liquor policies at the outlet or small area level alone may not be sufficient to reduce crime associated with malt liquor use. Policies that are more restrictive or cover larger areas than assessed in the current study may be required to have an independent effect on crime outcomes.
我们评估了美国 10 个城市的出口和小区域级麦芽酒政策对犯罪的影响,并假设更严格的麦芽酒政策将与犯罪的更大减少相关。
我们使用了一个汇集的时间序列研究设计(即面板回归)和对照区域来检验我们的假设。在政策实施前和后 3 年,我们比较了目标区域的季度犯罪率。分析了四种犯罪结果:特定第二类犯罪、攻击行为、故意破坏/财产损失和行为不检。使用调查人员新创建的麦芽酒政策限制措施衡量标准,评估麦芽酒政策的存在和不存在(是,否)以及麦芽酒政策的限制程度。结果使用一系列线性混合模型进行分析。
麦芽酒政策的采用与第二类特定犯罪无关。对于个别犯罪(例如,攻击行为、故意破坏、行为不检),我们发现了混合的结果,因为更严格的麦芽酒政策与犯罪的减少和增加都有关。总的来说,评估的政策被认为不是高度限制的。
我们的研究结果表明,仅在出口或小区域级别的麦芽酒政策可能不足以减少与麦芽酒使用相关的犯罪。需要比当前研究中评估的政策更严格或覆盖更大区域的政策才能对犯罪结果产生独立影响。