Norström Thor, Skog Ole-Jørgen
Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
J Stud Alcohol. 2003 May;64(3):393-401. doi: 10.15288/jsa.2003.64.393.
The objective of this study was to assess the impact of Saturday opening of alcohol retail shops in Sweden.
An experimental design was applied. Prior to February 2000, all alcohol monopoly outlets we closed on Saturdays. After this date, stores in an experimental area (six counties) were open on Saturdays. In the control area (seven counties) the shops remained closed. To prevent biases resulting from border trade, the experimental and control areas were separated by a border area (seven counties). The outcome measures included alcohol sales and indicators of assaults and drunken driving. The pre-intervention period covered January 1995-January 2000, and the post-intervention period February 2000-June 2001 (17 months). The data were analyzed on a monthly basis through ARIMA-modeling according to the Box-Jenkins technique.
The analysis uncovered a statistically significant increase in alcohol sales of 3.3%. There were no significant changes in any of the assault indicators. There was a statistically significant increase in drunken driving (8.3%) on Saturdays-Sundays; however, further analyses suggested this increase was due mainly to a change in the surveillance strategy of the police.
The Saturday opening of alcohol retail shops seems to have increased consumption but not alcohol-related harm. The absence of a significant effect on harm indicators could signify either that no such effect is present or that the design has insufficient power to uncover effects of the expected magnitude.
本研究旨在评估瑞典酒类零售店周六营业的影响。
采用实验设计。2000年2月之前，所有酒类专卖店周六均不营业。在此日期之后，试验区（六个县）的商店周六开始营业。在对照区（七个县），商店仍不营业。为防止边境贸易产生偏差，试验区和对照区由一个边境地区（七个县）隔开。结果指标包括酒类销售以及攻击和酒后驾车指标。干预前期涵盖1995年1月至2000年1月，干预后期为2000年2月至2001年6月（17个月）。根据Box-Jenkins技术，通过自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）建模对数据进行月度分析。
分析发现酒类销售额有统计学意义的增长，增长了3.3%。攻击指标均无显著变化。周六至周日酒后驾车有统计学意义的增长（8.3%）；然而，进一步分析表明，这种增长主要是由于警方监控策略的改变。
酒类零售店周六营业似乎增加了酒类消费，但未增加与酒精相关的危害。对危害指标没有显著影响，这可能意味着不存在这种影响，或者该设计没有足够的效力来发现预期规模的影响。
