Predictors of neurodegeneration differ between cognitively normal and subsequently impaired older adults.

Effects of Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk factors on brain volume changes may partly explain what happens during the preclinical AD stage in people who develop subsequent cognitive impairment (SI). We investigated predictors of neurodegeneration, measured by MRI-based volume loss, in older adults before diagnosis of cognitive impairment. There were 623 cognitively normal and 65 SI Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging participants (age 55-92 years) enrolled in the neuroimaging substudy from 1994 to 2015. Mixed-effects regression was used to assess the associations of AD risk factors (age, APOE e4 carrier status, diabetes, hypertension, obesity, current smoking, and elevated cholesterol) with brain regional volume change among the overall sample and by diagnostic status. Older age, APOE e4 carrier status, hypertension, and HDL cholesterol were predictors of volumetric change. Among SI participants only, hypertension, obesity, and APOE e4 carrier status were associated with greater declines in selected brain regions. SI individuals in the preclinical AD stage are vulnerable to risk factors that have either a protective or null effect in cognitively normal individuals.