Su Junhu, Aryal Achyut, Hegab Ibrahim M, Shrestha Uttam Babu, Coogan Sean C P, Sathyakumar Sambandam, Dalannast Munkhnast, Dou Zhigang, Suo Yila, Dabu Xilite, Fu Hongyan, Wu Liji, Ji Weihong
College of Grassland Science, Key Laboratory of Grassland Ecosystem (Ministry of Education) Gansu Agricultural University Lanzhou China.
Gansu Agricultural University-Massey University Research Centre for Grassland Biodiversity Gansu Agricultural University Lanzhou China.
Ecol Evol. 2018 Nov 20;8(23):11887-11899. doi: 10.1002/ece3.4645. eCollection 2018 Dec.
Around the world, climate change has impacted many species. In this study, we used bioclimatic variables and biophysical layers of Central Asia and the Asian Highlands combined with presence data of brown bear () to understand their current distribution and predict their future distribution under the current rate of climate change. Our bioclimatic model showed that the current suitable habitat of brown bear encompasses 3,430,493 km in the study area, the majority of which (>65%) located in China. Our analyses demonstrated that suitable habitat will be reduced by 11% (378,861.30 km) across Central Asia and the Asian Highlands by 2,050 due to climate change, predominantly (>90%) due to the changes in temperature and precipitation. The spatially averaged mean annual temperature of brown bear habitat is currently -1.2°C and predicted to increase to 1.6°C by 2,050. Mean annual precipitation in brown bear habitats is predicted to increase by 13% (from 406 to 459 mm) by 2,050. Such changes in two critical climatic variables may significantly affect the brown bear distribution, ethological repertoires, and physiological processes, which may increase their risk of extirpation in some areas. Approximately 32% (1,124,330 km) of the total suitable habitat falls within protected areas, which was predicted to reduce to 1,103,912 km (1.8% loss) by 2,050. Future loss of suitable habitats inside the protected areas may force brown bears to move outside the protected areas thereby increasing their risk of mortality. Therefore, more protected areas should be established in the suitable brown bear habitats in future to sustain populations in this region. Furthermore, development of corridors is needed to connect habitats between protected areas of different countries in Central Asia. Such practices will facilitate climate migration and connectivity among populations and movement between and within countries.
在全球范围内，气候变化已经影响了许多物种。在本研究中，我们结合中亚和亚洲高地的生物气候变量、生物物理层以及棕熊（ ）的现存数据，以了解它们当前的分布情况，并预测在当前气候变化速率下它们未来的分布。我们的生物气候模型显示，在研究区域内，棕熊目前适宜的栖息地面积为3430493平方千米，其中大部分（>65%）位于中国。我们的分析表明，到2050年，由于气候变化，中亚和亚洲高地适宜的栖息地面积将减少11%（378861.30平方千米），主要（>90%）是由于温度和降水的变化。棕熊栖息地目前的空间平均年温度为-1.2°C，预计到2050年将升至1.6°C。预计到2050年，棕熊栖息地的年平均降水量将增加13%（从406毫米增至459毫米）。这两个关键气候变量的变化可能会显著影响棕熊的分布、行为模式和生理过程，这可能会增加它们在某些地区灭绝的风险。适宜栖息地总面积的约32%（1124330平方千米）位于保护区内，预计到2050年将减少至1103912平方千米（损失1.8%）。未来保护区内适宜栖息地的丧失可能会迫使棕熊迁移到保护区外，从而增加它们的死亡风险。因此，未来应在适宜棕熊栖息的地区建立更多保护区，以维持该地区的种群数量。此外还需要建设廊道，连接中亚不同国家保护区之间的栖息地。这些措施将促进气候迁移以及种群之间的连通性，方便棕熊在不同国家之间以及国家内部的迁移。
