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运用经验贝叶斯克里金回归方法绘制地球成因氡潜力和氡风险图:以意大利中部一个火山地区为例。

Mapping the geogenic radon potential and radon risk by using Empirical Bayesian Kriging regression: A case study from a volcanic area of central Italy.

机构信息

CNR-IGAG, National Research Council, Institute of Environmental Geology and Geoengineering, Italy.

CNR-IGAG, National Research Council, Institute of Environmental Geology and Geoengineering, Italy; INGV, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2019 Apr 15;661:449-464. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.146. Epub 2019 Jan 15.

DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.146
PMID:30677690
Abstract

A detailed geochemical study on radon related to local geology was carried out in the municipality of Celleno, a little settlement located in the eastern border of the Quaternary Vulsini volcanic district (central Italy). This study included soil-gas and terrestrial gamma dose rate survey, laboratory analyses of natural radionuclides (U, Ra, Th, K) activity in rocks and soil samples, and indoor radon measurements carried out in selected private and public dwellings. Soil-gas radon and carbon dioxide concentrations range from 6 to 253 kBq/m and from 0.3 to11% v/v, respectively. Samples collected from outcropping volcanic and sedimentary rocks highlight: significant concentrations of U, Ra and K for lavas (151, 150 and 1587 Bq/kg, respectively), low concentrations for tuffs (126, 123 and 987 Bq/kg, respectively), and relatively low for sedimentary rocks (108, 109 and 662 Bq/kg, respectively). Terrestrial gamma dose rate values range between 0.130 and 0.417 μSv/h, being in good accordance with the different bedrock types. Indoor radon activity ranges from 162 to 1044 Bq/m; the calculated values of the annual effective dose varied from 4.08 and 26.31 mSv/y. Empirical Bayesian Kriging Regression (EBKR) was used to develop the Geogenic Radon Potential (GRP) map. EBKR provided accurate predictions of data on a local scale developing a spatial regression model in which soil-gas radon concentrations were considered as the response variable; several proxy variables, derived from geological, topographic and geochemical data, were used as predictors. Risk prediction map for indoor radon was tentatively produced using the Gaussian Geostatistical Simulation and a soil-indoor transfer factor was defined for a 'standard' dwelling (i.e., a dwelling with well-defined construction properties). This approach could be successfully used in the case of homogeneous building characteristics and territory with uniform geological characteristics.

摘要

对位于意大利中部第四纪武尔西尼火山地区(意大利中部)东边界的一个小村庄切莱诺(Celleno)的与当地地质有关的氡进行了详细的地球化学研究。该研究包括土壤气体和陆地伽马剂量率调查、岩石和土壤样品中天然放射性核素(U、Ra、Th、K)活度的实验室分析以及在选定的私人和公共住宅中进行的室内氡测量。土壤气体氡和二氧化碳浓度分别为 6 至 253kBq/m 和 0.3 至 11%v/v。从露头的火山岩和沉积岩中采集的样品显示:火山熔岩中 U、Ra 和 K 的浓度很高(分别为 151、150 和 1587Bq/kg),凝灰岩中浓度较低(分别为 126、123 和 987Bq/kg),而沉积岩中浓度相对较低(分别为 108、109 和 662Bq/kg)。陆地伽马剂量率值在 0.130 至 0.417μSv/h 之间,与不同的基岩类型非常吻合。室内氡活度范围为 162 至 1044Bq/m;计算得出的年有效剂量值为 4.08 至 26.31mSv/y。经验贝叶斯克里金回归(EBKR)用于开发地球成因氡潜力(GRP)图。EBKR 对土壤气体氡浓度作为响应变量的局部尺度数据进行了准确预测,开发了一种空间回归模型,其中考虑了几种代理变量,这些变量源自地质、地形和地球化学数据。使用高斯地质统计学模拟来初步生成室内氡风险预测图,并为“标准”住宅(即具有明确建筑特性的住宅)定义了土壤-室内转移系数。在具有均匀建筑特征和具有均匀地质特征的区域,该方法可以成功使用。

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