Liu Jun, Mauzerall Denise L, Chen Qi, Zhang Qiang, Song Yu, Peng Wei, Klimont Zbigniew, Qiu Xinghua, Zhang Shiqiu, Hu Min, Lin Weili, Smith Kirk R, Zhu Tong
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Jul 12;113(28):7756-61. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1604537113. Epub 2016 Jun 27.
As part of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the Chinese government has developed air pollution prevention and control plans for key regions with a focus on the power, transport, and industrial sectors. Here, we investigate the contribution of residential emissions to regional air pollution in highly polluted eastern China during the heating season, and find that dramatic improvements in air quality would also result from reduction in residential emissions. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry to evaluate potential residential emission controls in Beijing and in the Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei (BTH) region. In January and February 2010, relative to the base case, eliminating residential emissions in Beijing reduced daily average surface PM2.5 (particulate mater with aerodynamic diameter equal or smaller than 2.5 micrometer) concentrations by 14 ± 7 μg⋅m(-3) (22 ± 6% of a baseline concentration of 67 ± 41 μg⋅m(-3); mean ± SD). Eliminating residential emissions in the BTH region reduced concentrations by 28 ± 19 μg⋅m(-3) (40 ± 9% of 67 ± 41 μg⋅m(-3)), 44 ± 27 μg⋅m(-3) (43 ± 10% of 99 ± 54 μg⋅m(-3)), and 25 ± 14 μg⋅m(-3) (35 ± 8% of 70 ± 35 μg⋅m(-3)) in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces, respectively. Annually, elimination of residential sources in the BTH region reduced emissions of primary PM2.5 by 32%, compared with 5%, 6%, and 58% achieved by eliminating emissions from the transportation, power, and industry sectors, respectively. We also find air quality in Beijing would benefit substantially from reductions in residential emissions from regional controls in Tianjin and Hebei, indicating the value of policies at the regional level.
作为“十二五”规划的一部分，中国政府制定了重点区域空气污染防治计划，重点关注电力、交通和工业部门。在此，我们调查了供暖季节中国东部污染严重地区居民排放对区域空气污染的贡献，并发现减少居民排放也将带来空气质量的显著改善。我们使用天气研究和预报模型结合化学模型来评估北京以及京津冀地区潜在的居民排放控制措施。在2010年1月和2月，相对于基准情景，在北京消除居民排放使日均地面PM2.5（空气动力学直径等于或小于2.5微米的颗粒物）浓度降低了14±7微克·立方米（相对于基线浓度67±41微克·立方米的22±6%；均值±标准差）。在京津冀地区消除居民排放，分别使北京、天津和河北省的浓度降低了28±19微克·立方米（相对于67±41微克·立方米的40±9%）、44±27微克·立方米（相对于99±54微克·立方米的43±10%）和25±14微克·立方米（相对于70±35微克·立方米的35±8%）。每年，京津冀地区消除居民源使一次PM2.5排放量减少32%，相比之下，消除交通、电力和工业部门排放分别实现的减排比例为5%、6%和58%。我们还发现，天津和河北实施区域控制减少居民排放将使北京的空气质量大幅改善，这表明了区域层面政策的价值。
