Kiesewetter Gregor, Zhang Shaohui, Liu Jun
Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
Department of Environmental Engineering, School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, People's Republic of China.
Environ Res Lett. 2024 Dec 1;19(12):124051. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad8c65. Epub 2024 Nov 15.
Although China has seen strong reductions in air pollution levels in the last decade, PM concentrations still exceed the WHO Guideline several times, causing a substantial burden of mortality and morbidity. With many 'low hanging fruits' in terms of abatement measures already taken, further improvements will be more difficult and likely require different strategies than pursued so far. This study looks into the trends expected under current energy policies and air pollution control legislation and analyses the source contributions to ambient PM in China, with a special focus on the megacity of Beijing. Although reductions are foreseen, China appears not yet on track to meet its long-term targets for greenhouse gas emissions nor the future national air quality standards. Going beyond current policies, we analyze effects of measures which tackle both issues and quantify health co-benefits from further decarbonization policies required to meet the national target of reaching carbon neutrality by 2060, as well as the potential for further air pollution mitigation.
尽管在过去十年中中国的空气污染水平大幅下降，但细颗粒物（PM）浓度仍数倍超过世界卫生组织的指导标准，造成了巨大的死亡和发病负担。鉴于已经采取的减排措施中有许多“容易摘到的果实”，进一步改善将更加困难，可能需要与迄今所采用的不同策略。本研究探讨了当前能源政策和空气污染控制立法下预期的趋势，并分析了中国环境空气中细颗粒物的来源贡献，特别关注特大城市北京。尽管预计会有减排，但中国似乎尚未走上实现其温室气体排放长期目标或未来国家空气质量标准的轨道。超越当前政策，我们分析了同时解决这两个问题的措施的效果，并量化了为实现2060年碳中和的国家目标所需的进一步脱碳政策带来的健康协同效益，以及进一步减轻空气污染的潜力。
