Disaster Resilience Initiative, Accident Research Centre, Clayton, Monash University, Melbourne 3800, Australia.
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), 21027 Ispra, Italy.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Feb 5;16(3):460. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16030460.
Identification and profiling of current and emerging disaster risks is essential to inform effective disaster risk management practice. Without clear evidence, readiness to accept future threats is low, resulting in decreased ability to detect and anticipate these new threats. A consequential decreased strategic planning for mitigation, adaptation or response results in a lowered resilience capacity. This study aimed to investigate threats to the health and well-being of societies associated with disaster impact in Oceania. The study used a mixed methods approach to profile current and emerging disaster risks in selected countries of Oceania, including small and larger islands. Quantitative analysis of the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) provided historical background on disaster impact in Oceania from 2000 to 2018. The profile of recorded events was analyzed to describe the current burden of disasters in the Oceania region. A total of 30 key informant interviews with practitioners, policy managers or academics in disaster management in the Oceania region provided first-hand insights into their perceptions of current and emerging threats, and identified opportunities to enhance disaster risk management practice and resilience in Oceania. Qualitative methods were used to analyze these key informant interviews. Using thematic analysis, we identified emerging disaster risk evidence from the data and explored new pathways to support decision-making on resilience building and disaster management. We characterized perceptions of the nature and type of contemporary and emerging disaster risk with potential impacts in Oceania. The study findings captured not only traditional and contemporary risks, such as climate change, but also less obvious ones, such as plastic pollution, rising inequality, uncontrolled urbanization, and food and water insecurity, which were perceived as contributors to current and/or future crises, or as crises themselves. The findings provided insights into how to improve disaster management more effectively, mainly through bottom-up approaches and education to increase risk-ownership and community action, enhanced political will, good governance practices and support of a people-centric approach.
识别和分析当前和新出现的灾害风险对于为有效的灾害风险管理实践提供信息至关重要。如果没有明确的证据，人们对未来威胁的准备程度就会降低，从而降低发现和预测这些新威胁的能力。相应地，减少了缓解、适应或应对的战略规划，导致抵御能力降低。本研究旨在调查与灾害影响相关的对大洋洲社会的健康和福祉的威胁。该研究采用混合方法，对大洋洲选定国家（包括小岛和大岛）的当前和新出现的灾害风险进行了分析。对国际灾害数据库（EM-DAT）的定量分析提供了 2000 年至 2018 年大洋洲灾害影响的历史背景。对记录事件的分析描述了大洋洲地区当前灾害的负担。对大洋洲灾害管理领域的 30 名从业人员、政策管理者或学者进行了关键知情者访谈，他们提供了对当前和新出现威胁的第一手看法，并确定了增强大洋洲灾害风险管理实践和抵御能力的机会。对这些关键知情者访谈使用了定性方法进行分析。通过主题分析，我们从数据中确定了新出现的灾害风险证据，并探索了新的途径，以支持关于建设抵御能力和灾害管理的决策。我们描述了大洋洲对当代和新出现灾害风险的性质和类型的看法，这些风险具有潜在影响。研究结果不仅捕捉到了传统和当代风险，如气候变化，还捕捉到了不太明显的风险，如塑料污染、不平等加剧、失控的城市化以及粮食和水不安全，这些风险被视为当前和/或未来危机的促成因素，或本身就是危机。研究结果深入了解了如何更有效地改进灾害管理，主要是通过自下而上的方法和教育来提高风险意识和社区行动，增强政治意愿，实行善治做法，并支持以人为本的方法。
