Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China.
Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China.
J Theor Biol. 2019 Jun 7;470:20-29. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.03.004. Epub 2019 Mar 6.
Infectious disease severely threatens human life. Human mobility and travel patterns influence the spread of infection between cities and countries. We find that the infection severity in downstream cities during outbreaks is related to transmission rate, recovery rate, travel rate, travel duration and the average number of person-to-person contacts per day. The peak value of the infected population in downstream cities is slightly higher than that in source cities. However, as the number of cities increases, the severity increase percentage during outbreaks between end and source cities is constant. The surveillance of important nodes connecting cities, such as airports and train stations, can help delay the occurrence time of infection outbreaks. The city-entry surveillance of hub cities is not only useful to these cities, but also to cities that are strongly connected (i.e., have a high travel rate) to them. The city-exit surveillance of hub cities contributes to other downstream cities, but only slightly to itself. Surveillance conducted in hub cities is highly efficient in controlling infection transmission. Only strengthening the individual immunity of frequent travellers is not efficient for infection control. However, reducing the number of person-to-person contacts per day effectively limits the spread of infection.
传染病严重威胁人类生命。人类的流动和出行模式影响着城市和国家之间的感染传播。我们发现，在疫情爆发期间，下游城市的感染严重程度与传播率、恢复率、出行率、出行时间和人均每日接触人数有关。下游城市感染人群的峰值略高于源城市。然而，随着城市数量的增加，疫情期间源城市和终端城市的严重程度增幅百分比是恒定的。对连接城市的重要节点（如机场和火车站）的监测，可以帮助延迟感染爆发的发生时间。枢纽城市的入境监测不仅对这些城市有用，而且对与其强连接（即出行率高）的城市也有用。枢纽城市的出境监测对其他下游城市有帮助，但对自身帮助较小。在枢纽城市进行监测，对控制感染传播非常有效。仅增强常旅客的个体免疫力，对于控制感染并不有效。但是，减少人均每日接触人数，可以有效地限制感染的传播。
