Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei, China.
Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Jun 10;668:1-12. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.412. Epub 2019 Feb 27.
The commercial department plays a significant role in China's energy conservation and carbon dioxide emission mitigation. The study employs a panel data set during 2001-2015 and adopts a non-parametric additive regression model to analyse the drivers of commercial department's carbon dioxide emissions in China. Non-parametric additive regression model based on the provincial panel data is first applied to investigate the carbon dioxide emissions in China's commercial department. The consequences demonstrate that the nonlinear impact of economic growth upon carbon dioxide emissions is in accordance with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Energy intensity is currently in the left half of the "overturned U-shaped" relationship. In the long run, the overturned "U-shaped" impact of energy intensity may be due to the discrepant level of technological development in different phases. Nevertheless, the urbanization demonstrates an erected "U-shaped" impact on carbon dioxide emissions owing to the further urban commercial consumption and fixed asset investment in recent times. Aggregate population presents a fast-to-slow growth relationship, which is the result that residents require massive commercial goods with the augment in population and income. Energy structure also reveals an erected "U-shape" relationship on account of slight electricity consumption in former times and the large amount of thermal power consumption in later phases. As a result, we should take into full consideration the disparate fluctuant impacts of these influencing indicators when it comes to carbon dioxide emissions in commercial department.
商业部门在中国的节能和减少二氧化碳排放方面发挥着重要作用。本研究利用了 2001-2015 年期间的面板数据，并采用非参数加性回归模型分析了中国商业部门二氧化碳排放的驱动因素。首次基于省级面板数据的非参数加性回归模型来研究中国商业部门的二氧化碳排放。结果表明，经济增长对二氧化碳排放的非线性影响符合环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）假说。能源强度目前处于“倒 U 型”关系的左半部分。从长期来看，能源强度的倒“U 型”影响可能是由于不同阶段技术发展水平的差异。然而，由于近年来城市商业消费和固定资产投资的增加，城市化对二氧化碳排放呈现出竖立的“U 型”影响。由于人口和收入的增加，居民对大量商业商品的需求，总人口呈现出快速到缓慢的增长关系。能源结构也由于过去用电量小和后来阶段火力发电量大而呈现出竖立的“U 形”关系。因此，在考虑商业部门的二氧化碳排放时，我们应该充分考虑这些影响指标的不同波动影响。
