Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, 689 Huadian Road, Baoding, 071003, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2019 May;26(14):14362-14372. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-04778-y. Epub 2019 Mar 13.
On December 19, 2017, China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced the official launch of the much-anticipated national emissions trading system (ETS), which is a critical period for the transition from the eight carbon emission trading pilot projects to the national market at this stage. Comprehensively evaluating the efficiency of China's eight carbon trading pilots is vital for strengthening the construction of its national ETS. This paper investigates the weak-form efficiency of eight carbon trading markets in China. We use a series of variance ratio tests to identify the efficiency from the market set up to the May 4, 2018, of all markets. The results indicate that the majority of the carbon trading markets are inefficient and only Beijing, Hubei, and Fujian markets are efficient. The China's carbon trading market is gradually maturing and implemented. In addition, we analyze the factors have impact on the market efficiency. It shows that the liquidity, volume, allocation allowance, and transparency in information are significant factors; meanwhile, the regional policy and cross cooperation also are important factors. Finally, this paper puts forward several policy recommendations on how to strengthen the effectiveness of China carbon trading markets based on the empirical results.
2017 年 12 月 19 日，中国国家发展和改革委员会（NDRC）宣布正式启动备受期待的全国排放交易体系（ETS），这是现阶段从八个碳交易试点项目向全国市场过渡的关键时期。全面评估中国八个碳交易试点的效率对于加强其国家 ETS 的建设至关重要。本文研究了中国八个碳交易市场的弱形式效率。我们使用一系列方差比检验来识别从市场建立到 2018 年 5 月 4 日的所有市场的效率。结果表明，大多数碳交易市场效率低下，只有北京、湖北和福建市场是有效的。中国的碳交易市场正在逐步成熟和实施。此外，我们分析了影响市场效率的因素。结果表明，流动性、成交量、分配津贴和信息透明度是重要因素；同时，区域政策和跨区域合作也是重要因素。最后，本文根据实证结果提出了几条关于如何加强中国碳交易市场有效性的政策建议。
