School of Health Sciences,University of South Australia,Adelaide, SA 5001,Australia.
Medical Entomology Unit,Infectious Diseases Research Centre,Institute for Medical Research,Ministry of Health Malaysia,50588 Kuala Lumpur,Malaysia.
Epidemiol Infect. 2019 Jan;147:e125. doi: 10.1017/S095026881900030X.
Dengue infection in China has increased dramatically in recent years. Guangdong province (main city Guangzhou) accounted for more than 94% of all dengue cases in the 2014 outbreak. Currently, there is no existing effective vaccine and most efforts of control are focused on the vector itself. This study aimed to evaluate different dengue management strategies in a region where this disease is emerging. This work was done by establishing a dengue simulation model for Guangzhou to enable the testing of control strategies aimed at vector control and vaccination. For that purpose, the computer-based dengue simulation model (DENSiM) together with the Container-Inhabiting Mosquito Simulation Model (CIMSiM) has been used to create a working dengue simulation model for the city of Guangzhou. In order to achieve the best model fit against historical surveillance data, virus introduction scenarios were run and then matched against the actual dengue surveillance data. The simulation model was able to predict retrospective outbreaks with a sensitivity of 0.18 and a specificity of 0.98. This new parameterisation can now be used to evaluate the potential impact of different control strategies on dengue transmission in Guangzhou. The knowledge generated from this research would provide useful information for authorities regarding the historic patterns of dengue outbreaks, as well as the effectiveness of different disease management strategies.
近年来，中国的登革热感染病例急剧增加。广东省（主要城市为广州）在 2014 年的疫情中占所有登革热病例的 94%以上。目前，尚无现有有效的疫苗，大多数控制措施都集中在病媒本身。本研究旨在评估在这种疾病不断出现的地区采取不同的登革热管理策略。这项工作是通过为广州建立登革热模拟模型来实现的，该模型可以测试针对病媒控制和疫苗接种的控制策略。为此，使用基于计算机的登革热模拟模型（DENSiM）和容器栖息蚊虫模拟模型（CIMSiM）创建了一个适用于广州市的实用登革热模拟模型。为了使模型拟合历史监测数据达到最佳效果，模拟了病毒引入情景，并将其与实际登革热监测数据进行了匹配。该模拟模型能够以 0.18 的灵敏度和 0.98 的特异性预测回溯性暴发。现在可以使用这种新的参数化来评估不同控制策略对广州登革热传播的潜在影响。这项研究产生的知识将为当局提供有关登革热暴发的历史模式以及不同疾病管理策略的有效性的有用信息。
