Advanced Membranes and Learning Scale Required for Cost-Effective Post-combustion Carbon Capture.

This study offers an integrated vision for advanced membrane technology for post-combustion carbon capture. To inform development of new-generation materials, a plant-level techno-economic analysis is performed to explore major membrane property targets required for cost-effective CO capture. To be competitive with amine-based nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) technology or meet a more ambitious cost target for 90% CO capture, advanced membranes should have a higher CO permeance than 2,250 GPU and a higher CO/N selectivity than 30 if their installed prices are higher than $50/m. To assess learning experience required for advanced technology using such high-performance membranes toward commercialization, a hybrid approach that combines learning curves with the techno-economic analysis is applied to project the cumulative installed capacity necessary for the evolution from first-of-a-kind to NOAK systems. The estimated learning scale for advanced membrane technology is more than 10 GW, depending on multiple factors. Implications for research, development, and policy are discussed.