Casal Claudio A, Anguera M Teresa, Maneiro Rubén, Losada José L
Department of Science of Physical Activity and Sport, Catholic University of Valencia San Vicente Mártir, Valencia, Spain.
Department of Social Psychology and Quantitative Psychology, Institute of Neurosciences, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
Front Psychol. 2019 Mar 18;10:501. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2019.00501. eCollection 2019.
The aim of the present study was to identify and differentiate the factors that determine the possession times of successful and unsuccessful elite football teams, with the purpose of identifying a more effective possession model. For this, match corresponding to the round of eighth-finals, quarter-finals, semi-finals and final of the 2016 UEFA Euro France in which 2,636 offensive sequences occurred, were analyzed. Video recordings of matches were analyzed and coded post-event using systematic observation. The performance indicators recorded and analyzed were: phase; match period; type of start-up; interaction context; intention; field zone; possession time, passes, attack outcome; match status and final outcome. An ANOVA was performed to analyze data in order to study the influence of a set of variables. A Box-Cox transformation was applied on the variable explained to achieve normal conditions. A study of the main effects and significant interactions was also carried out, complemented with a set of predictions with the variables that were more significant. It is hypothesized that possession analysis from a perspective will identify a more effective offensive playstyle. Results show how, in successful teams, possession time is influenced by: Type of start-up, intention and field zone. On the other hand, in unsuccessful teams, possession time is determined fundamentally by intention and match status. In terms of the results of the predictive models, in the case of successful teams, they will have longer possessions in the offensive zone with the score in favor and, in the defensive zone with a draw score, in both situations, initiated with the intention of progressing by means of a transition. For unsuccessful teams, possessions will be of longer duration in the defensive zone with a draw score, regardless of the type of start-up and, in the offensive zone, losing and initiating the play by means of a set ball action and winning by means of a transition. Results obtained in this work identify key factors that determine possession time in teams and allow to differentiate the possessions of successful and unsuccessful teams, identifying a more effective ball possession model. This information can be used to design a possession model with greater probabilities of success and increase the offensive performance of teams.
本研究的目的是识别和区分决定精英足球队成功与失败控球时间的因素，以便确定更有效的控球模式。为此，对2016年法国欧洲杯八分之一决赛、四分之一决赛、半决赛和决赛阶段的比赛进行了分析，这些比赛中共出现了2636次进攻序列。比赛录像在赛后通过系统观察进行分析和编码。记录和分析的性能指标包括：阶段；比赛时段；启动类型；互动情境；意图；场区；控球时间、传球、进攻结果；比赛状态和最终结果。进行方差分析以研究一组变量的影响。对解释变量进行Box-Cox变换以达到正态条件。还进行了主效应和显著交互作用的研究，并辅以一组对更显著变量的预测。假设从一个角度进行控球分析将识别出更有效的进攻打法。结果表明，在成功的球队中，控球时间受以下因素影响：启动类型、意图和场区。另一方面，在失败的球队中，控球时间主要由意图和比赛状态决定。就预测模型的结果而言，对于成功的球队，在比分有利时，他们在进攻区的控球时间会更长；在平局时，在防守区的控球时间会更长，在这两种情况下，控球都是以通过过渡推进为意图开始的。对于失败的球队，在平局时，无论启动类型如何，在防守区的控球时间会更长；在进攻区，以失球开始并通过定位球战术发起进攻，以过渡进攻获胜时控球时间会更长。本研究获得的结果确定了决定球队控球时间的关键因素，并能够区分成功和失败球队的控球情况，从而确定更有效的控球模式。这些信息可用于设计更有可能成功的控球模式，并提高球队的进攻表现。
