Mason-D'Croz Daniel, Sulser Timothy B, Wiebe Keith, Rosegrant Mark W, Lowder Sarah K, Nin-Pratt Alejandro, Willenbockel Dirk, Robinson Sherman, Zhu Tingju, Cenacchi Nicola, Dunston Shahnila, Robertson Richard D
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, D.C., USA.
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), 306 Carmody Road, St Lucia, QLD 4067, Australia.
World Dev. 2019 Apr;116:38-53. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.12.006.
We use IFPRI's IMPACT framework of linked biophysical and structural economic models to examine developments in global agricultural production systems, climate change, and food security. Building on related work on how increased investment in agricultural research, resource management, and infrastructure can address the challenges of meeting future food demand, we explore the costs and implications of these investments for reducing hunger in Africa by 2030. This analysis is coupled with a new investment estimation model, based on the perpetual inventory methodology (PIM), which allows for a better assessment of the costs of achieving projected agricultural improvements. We find that climate change will continue to slow projected reductions in hunger in the coming decades-increasing the number of people at risk of hunger in 2030 by 16 million in Africa compared to a scenario without climate change. Investments to increase agricultural productivity can offset the adverse impacts of climate change and help reduce the share of people at risk of hunger in 2030 to five percent or less in Northern, Western, and Southern Africa, but the share is projected to remain at ten percent or more in Eastern and Central Africa. Investments in Africa to achieve these results are estimated to cost about 15 billion USD per year between 2015 and 2030, as part of a larger package of investments costing around 52 billion USD in developing countries.
我们使用国际粮食政策研究所（IFPRI）相互关联的生物物理和结构经济模型框架，来研究全球农业生产系统、气候变化和粮食安全的发展情况。基于有关增加农业研究、资源管理和基础设施投资如何应对未来粮食需求挑战的相关工作，我们探讨了这些投资在2030年前减少非洲饥饿人口方面的成本和影响。该分析结合了一个基于永续盘存法（PIM）的新投资估算模型，这使得我们能够更好地评估实现预计农业改善所需的成本。我们发现，气候变化将在未来几十年继续减缓预计的饥饿人口减少速度——与无气候变化情景相比，到2030年非洲面临饥饿风险的人口数量将增加1600万。提高农业生产力的投资可以抵消气候变化的不利影响，并有助于将2030年北非、西非和南部非洲面临饥饿风险的人口比例降至5%或更低，但预计东非和中非的这一比例仍将保持在10%或更高。2015年至2030年期间非洲为实现这些成果的投资估计每年约需150亿美元，这是发展中国家约520亿美元更大规模投资计划的一部分。
