WorldFish, Penang, Malaysia.
International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2021 Dec 22;16(12):e0261615. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0261615. eCollection 2021.
One of the most pressing challenges facing food systems in Africa is ensuring availability of a healthy and sustainable diet to 2.4 billion people by 2050. The continent has struggled with development challenges, particularly chronic food insecurity and pervasive poverty. In Africa's food systems, fish and other aquatic foods play a multifaceted role in generating income, and providing a critical source of essential micronutrients. To date, there are no estimates of investment and potential returns for domestic fish production in Africa. To contribute to policy debates about the future of fish in Africa, we applied the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agriculture Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) to explore two Pan-African scenarios for fish sector growth: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a high-growth scenario for capture fisheries and aquaculture with accompanying strong gross domestic product growth (HIGH). Post-model analysis was used to estimate employment and aquaculture investment requirements for the sector in Africa. Africa's fish sector is estimated to support 20.7 million jobs in 2030, and 21.6 million by 2050 under the BAU. Approximately 2.6 people will be employed indirectly along fisheries and aquaculture value chains for every person directly employed in the fish production stage. Under the HIGH scenario, total employment in Africa's fish food system will reach 58.0 million jobs, representing 2.4% of total projected population in Africa by 2050. Aquaculture production value is estimated to achieve US$ 3.3 billion and US$ 20.4 billion per year under the BAU and HIGH scenarios by 2050, respectively. Farm-gate investment costs for the three key inputs (fish feeds, farm labor, and fish seed) to achieve the aquaculture volumes projected by 2050 are estimated at US$ 1.8 billion per year under the BAU and US$ 11.6 billion per year under the HIGH scenario. Sustained investments are critical to sustain capture fisheries and support aquaculture growth for food system transformation towards healthier diets.
非洲粮食系统面临的最紧迫挑战之一是，到 2050 年，为 24 亿人提供健康和可持续的饮食。该大陆一直面临发展挑战，特别是长期的粮食不安全和普遍贫困。在非洲的粮食系统中，鱼类和其他水生食品在创造收入和提供关键的必需微量营养素方面发挥着多方面的作用。迄今为止，非洲国内鱼类生产的投资和潜在回报尚无估计。为了为有关非洲鱼类未来的政策辩论做出贡献，我们应用国际农业商品和贸易政策分析模型（IMPACT）来探讨鱼类部门增长的两个泛非情景：一种是常规情景（BAU），另一种是捕捞渔业和水产养殖的高增长情景，同时伴随着国内生产总值的强劲增长（HIGH）。在模型之后进行的分析用于估计非洲鱼类部门的就业和水产养殖投资需求。根据 BAU，到 2030 年，非洲鱼类部门预计将支持 2070 万个工作岗位，到 2050 年将支持 2160 万个工作岗位。在渔业和水产养殖价值链中，每直接从事鱼类生产阶段工作的人，就会间接雇用大约 2.6 人。根据 HIGH 情景，到 2050 年，非洲鱼类食品系统的总就业人数将达到 5800 万个工作岗位，占 2050 年非洲预计总人口的 2.4%。根据 BAU 和 HIGH 情景，到 2050 年，非洲鱼类食品系统的水产养殖产值预计将分别达到 33 亿美元和 204 亿美元。根据 BAU，到 2050 年，要实现预计的水产养殖量，实现三个关键投入（鱼类饲料、农场劳动力和鱼类种苗）的农场门投资成本估计为每年 18 亿美元；根据 HIGH 情景，每年的投资成本为 116 亿美元。要维持对捕捞渔业的可持续投资，并支持水产养殖的增长，以实现向更健康饮食的粮食系统转型，就需要持续投资。
