Observational Constraints Reduce Likelihood of Extreme Changes in Multidecadal Land Water Availability.

Future changes in multidecadal mean water availability, represented as the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration, remain highly uncertain in ensemble simulations of climate models. Here we identify a physically meaningful relationship between present-day mean precipitation and projected changes in water availability. This suggests that the uncertainty can be reduced by conditioning the ensemble on observed precipitation, which is achieved through a novel probabilistic approach that uses Approximate Bayesian Computation. Comparing the constrained with the full ensemble shows that projected extreme changes in water availability, denoted by the 5th and 95th percentile of the full ensemble, are less likely over 73% and 63% of land, respectively. There is also an overall shift toward wetter conditions over Europe, Southern Africa, and Western North America, whereas the opposite occurs over the Amazon. Finally, the constrained projections support adaptation to shifts in regional water availability as imposed by different global warming levels.