Business School, Chengdu University, Chengdu, Sichuan, PR China.
Foster School of Business, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2019 Apr 29;14(4):e0216130. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0216130. eCollection 2019.
As many countries are now seeking to protect their own markets rather than indulge in global trade, this paper examines whether this type of de-globalization behavior has been having any effect on international investment relationships through a systematic analysis of international investment network (IIN) in 127 economies from 2005 to 2016. Unlike previous studies that only analyzed portfolio investment data, the bilateral international investment data were estimated using a matrix-based iteration approach, and the IIN established using complex network theory. Using bilateral international investment data made the results more reliable and somewhat closer to reality. To analyze the structural properties and evolution of the IIN, complex network indicators including a new one named node similarity were developed. The node similarity is defined as the proportion of common relationships of the current economy between two successive years which is useful to reveal the dynamics of the IIN. This paper finds that there are heterogenous and hierarchal properties in the IIN, several economies had a wide range of international investment partners, while most others had only a small range of investment partners and were more likely to form tight groups within the network. The economies in the IIN were tending towards smaller but closer communities, a new trend of regional financial cooperation was developing. The IIN is divided into more communities over time while the top active and central economies often locate in different communities. These findings imply that the structure of the IIN is changing geographically during the de-globalization rather than independent with regions. The regional cooperation has made positive effect on the international investment. The governments should ensure that they continue to support liberal financial policies and to promote better regional financial cooperation.
随着许多国家现在都在寻求保护自己的市场，而不是沉迷于全球贸易，本文通过对 2005 年至 2016 年间 127 个经济体的国际投资网络（IIN）进行系统分析，考察了这种去全球化行为是否对国际投资关系产生了任何影响。与之前仅分析证券投资数据的研究不同，本文使用基于矩阵的迭代方法估计双边国际投资数据，并使用复杂网络理论建立 IIN。使用双边国际投资数据使结果更加可靠，也更接近现实。为了分析 IIN 的结构特性和演变，本文开发了复杂网络指标，包括一个名为节点相似度的新指标。节点相似度定义为当前经济与前一年之间共同关系的比例，这有助于揭示 IIN 的动态。本文发现，IIN 具有异质和层次结构特性，一些经济体拥有广泛的国际投资伙伴，而大多数经济体只有少数投资伙伴，并且更有可能在网络内形成紧密的群体。IIN 中的经济体正趋向于更小但更紧密的社区，区域金融合作的新趋势正在发展。随着时间的推移，IIN 被分为更多的社区，而活跃和中心经济体通常位于不同的社区。这些发现意味着，在去全球化过程中，IIN 的结构在地理上正在发生变化，而不是与地区独立。区域合作对国际投资产生了积极影响。政府应确保继续支持自由金融政策，并促进更好的区域金融合作。
