Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
Risk Anal. 2019 Oct;39(10):2127-2142. doi: 10.1111/risa.13321. Epub 2019 Apr 30.
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a useful tool to assess complex interconnected systems. This article leverages the capabilities of PRA tools developed for industrial and nuclear risk analysis in community resilience evaluations by modeling the food security of a community in terms of its built environment as an integrated system. To this end, we model the performance of Gilroy, CA, a moderate-size town, with regard to disruptions in its food supply caused by a severe earthquake. The food retailers of Gilroy, along with the electrical power network, water network elements, and bridges are considered as components of a system. Fault and event trees are constructed to model the requirements for continuous food supply to community residents and are analyzed efficiently using binary decision diagrams (BDDs). The study also identifies shortcomings in approximate classical system analysis methods in assessing community resilience. Importance factors are utilized to rank the importance of various factors to the overall risk of food insecurity. Finally, the study considers the impact of various sources of uncertainties in the hazard modeling and performance of infrastructure on food security measures. The methodology can be applicable for any existing critical infrastructure system and has potential extensions to other hazards.
概率风险评估（PRA）是评估复杂互联系统的有用工具。本文通过将社区的食品安全建模为一个综合系统，利用为工业和核风险分析开发的 PRA 工具的功能，在社区弹性评估中进行评估。为此，我们对加利福尼亚州吉尔罗伊市进行建模，考虑了由于强烈地震对其食品供应造成的中断。吉尔罗伊的食品零售商以及电网、水网元素和桥梁被视为系统的组成部分。故障和事件树被构建来模拟对社区居民持续供应食物的要求，并使用二进制决策图（BDD）进行有效分析。该研究还确定了近似经典系统分析方法在评估社区弹性方面的缺点。重要性因素用于对各种因素对粮食不安全总体风险的重要性进行排序。最后，该研究考虑了在基础设施的危害建模和性能方面各种不确定性源对食品安全措施的影响。该方法可适用于任何现有关键基础设施系统，并有可能扩展到其他危害。
