Consequences of policy incoherence: how Zambia's post-FCTC investment policy stimulated tobacco production.

Zambia, a tobacco-growing country, provides manufacturing incentives to attract foreign and domestic investment. In an earlier study, we cautioned that these incentives could lead to local tobacco manufacturing, undermining its domestic tobacco control efforts. In 2018, as part of our continuing research program, we conducted key informant interviews (n = 15) and document analyses. Our early caution proved correct. In 2018, taking advantage of tax incentives, British American Tobacco Zambia and Roland Imperial Tobacco opened new cigarette-manufacturing facilities in the Lusaka Multi-Facility Economic Zone. They report capability of producing 25 million cigarettes daily, between 3 and 5 million of which is intended for the domestic market. Zambia's tax incentives for cigarette manufacturing are likely to increase domestic consumption. The 170 new jobs created in the two plants pale when considering long-term health impacts and lost economic productivity of an increase in supply of locally produced cigarette brands.