Qatar University - Qatar Transportation and Traffic Safety Center, College of Engineering, P.O. Box 2713, Doha, Qatar; Uhasselt, Transportation Research Institute (IMOB), Agoralaan, 3590, Diepenbeek, Belgium.
School of Mathematics and Statistics, UNSW, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia.
Accid Anal Prev. 2019 Aug;129:241-249. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2019.05.033. Epub 2019 Jun 5.
Pedestrians struck in motorised vehicle crashes constitute the largest group of traffic fatalities worldwide. Excessive speed is the primary contributory factor in such crashes. The relationship between estimated impact speed and the risk of a pedestrian fatality has generated much debate concerning what should be a safe maximum speed limit for vehicles in high pedestrian active areas.
Four electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, COMPENDEX, and SCOPUS) were searched to identify relevant studies. Records were assessed, and data retrieved independently by two authors in adherence with the PRISMA statement. The included studies reported data on pedestrian fatalities from motorised vehicle crashes with known estimated impact speed. Summary odds ratios (OR) were obtained using meta-regression models. Time trends and publication bias were assessed.
Fifty-five studies were identified for a full-text assessment, 27 met inclusion criteria, and 20 were included in a meta-analysis. The analyses found that when the estimated impact speed increases by 1 km/h, the odds of a pedestrian fatality increases on average by 11% (OR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.10-1.12). The risk of a fatality reaches 5% at an estimated impact speed of 30 km/h, 10% at 37 km/h, 50% at 59 km/h, 75% at 69 km/h and 90% at 80 km/h. Evidence of publication bias and time trend bias among included studies were found.
The results of the meta-analysis support setting speed limits of 30-40 km/h for high pedestrian active areas. These speed limits are commonly used by best practice countries that have the lowest road fatality rates and that practice a Safe System Approach to road safety.
行人在机动车事故中伤亡是全球范围内造成交通死亡的最大群体。速度过快是造成此类事故的主要因素。行人伤亡风险与预估碰撞速度之间的关系引发了大量争议，即行人活动频繁区域的车辆应设置怎样的限速才安全。
本研究通过四个电子数据库（MEDLINE、EMBASE、COMPENDEX 和 SCOPUS）检索相关研究。根据 PRISMA 声明，两名作者独立评估记录并提取数据。纳入的研究报告了已知预估碰撞速度的机动车事故中行人死亡的相关数据。采用元回归模型获取汇总比值比（OR）。评估时间趋势和发表偏倚。
共检索到 55 项研究，其中 27 项进行全文评估，20 项符合纳入标准并进行了 meta 分析。分析结果表明，预估碰撞速度每增加 1 公里/小时，行人死亡的几率平均增加 11%（OR=1.11，95% CI：1.10-1.12）。当预估碰撞速度达到 30 公里/小时时，死亡率为 5%，达到 37 公里/小时时为 10%，达到 59 公里/小时时为 50%，达到 69 公里/小时时为 75%，达到 80 公里/小时时为 90%。研究存在发表偏倚和时间趋势偏倚的证据。
meta 分析结果支持在行人活动频繁的区域设置 30-40 公里/小时的限速。这些限速被实施最佳实践的国家广泛采用，这些国家的道路死亡率最低，且采用安全系统方法进行道路安全管理。
