Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Postal Address: Room C112, Robertson Building (46), Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia; Department of Water Resources Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran, Postal Address: Box 14115-336, Tehran, Iran.
Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Postal Address: Room C112, Robertson Building (46), Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia; Capability Systems Centre, University of New South Wales Canberra, Postal Address: Capability Systems Centre, UNSW Canberra @ ADFA, Ground Floor, Building 21, Northcott Drive, CANBERRA, ACT, 2600, Australia.
J Environ Manage. 2019 Sep 15;246:27-41. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.05.033. Epub 2019 Jun 6.
Similar to any modelling technique, system dynamics (SD) modelling should start with the essential step of scoping and identifying the problem of interest before further analysis and modelling. In practice, this first step is a challenging task, especially when wicked issues such as water management are being addressed. There is still a vital need for modelling methods and tools that can support modellers to identify and assemble essential data to inform problem scoping and boundary setting. This article aims to narrow this gap by presenting a methodology for combining a series of conceptual modelling techniques (extending the usually linear Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework with causal loop diagrams, system archetypes, stock and flow diagrams) towards the development of a quantitative SD model. A case study of the Gorganroud-Gharesu Basin, in Iran, is used to illustrate the benefits of the methodology. Our experience shows that combining multiple conceptual models provides complementary insights into the problem boundaries and model structure, as a basis for developing the SD model.
与任何建模技术类似，系统动力学（SD）建模应在进一步分析和建模之前，从确定感兴趣问题的范围和识别问题这一基本步骤开始。在实践中，这第一步是一项具有挑战性的任务，特别是在处理诸如水资源管理等棘手问题时。仍然非常需要能够支持建模人员识别和组合必要数据以告知问题范围和边界设定的建模方法和工具。本文旨在通过提出一种将一系列概念建模技术（通过因果回路图、系统原型、存量和流量图将通常线性的驱动-压力-状态-影响-响应框架扩展）结合起来的方法来缩小这一差距，以开发定量 SD 模型。以伊朗戈尔甘鲁德-加雷斯盆地为例，说明了该方法的优势。我们的经验表明，将多个概念模型结合起来，可以为问题边界和模型结构提供互补的见解，作为开发 SD 模型的基础。
