Bigelow Benjamin, Desalegn Dawit N, Salomon Joshua A, Verguet Stéphane
Global Health and Population, Harvard University T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.
BMJ Glob Health. 2019 May 16;4(3):e001281. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2018-001281. eCollection 2019.
In the Ethiopian health system, operations management techniques have been underutilised. Although previous research has outlined limitations of paper-based patient records, few studies have examined their potential utility for improving management of hospital operations. In this paper, we used data collected from paper registries in an Ethiopian obstetrics ward at Addis Ababa's Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital, Ethiopia's largest university hospital, to model the ward's operations. First, we attempted to identify predictors of lengthy stays and readmissions among women giving birth: few predictors were deemed significant. Second, time series methods for demand forecasting were applied to the data and evaluated with several error metrics, and these forecasts were improvements over baseline methods. We conclude with recommendations on how the obstetrics ward could incorporate our modelling approaches into their daily operations.
在埃塞俄比亚的卫生系统中，运营管理技术未得到充分利用。尽管先前的研究已经概述了纸质病历的局限性，但很少有研究探讨其在改善医院运营管理方面的潜在效用。在本文中，我们使用了从埃塞俄比亚最大的大学医院亚的斯亚贝巴提库尔·安贝萨专科医院的产科病房纸质登记册中收集的数据，对该病房的运营进行建模。首先，我们试图确定分娩妇女长时间住院和再次入院的预测因素：几乎没有预测因素被认为具有显著性。其次，将需求预测的时间序列方法应用于数据，并使用几种误差度量进行评估，这些预测比基线方法有所改进。我们最后就产科病房如何将我们的建模方法纳入其日常运营提出了建议。
