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气候变化将减少在巴西大西洋森林热点地区受保护程度较低的蛇类的分布范围。

Climate change will decrease the range size of snake species under negligible protection in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot.

机构信息

Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia de Ambientes Aquáticos Continentais (PEA), Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Maringá, Paraná, Brazil.

Laboratório de Herpetologia e Comportamento Animal, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, Brazil.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2019 Jun 12;9(1):8523. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-44732-z.

Abstract

Reptiles are highly susceptible to climate change, responding negatively to thermal and rainfall alterations mainly in relation to their reproductive processes. Based on that, we evaluated the effects of climate change on climatically suitable areas for the occurrence of snakes in the Atlantic Forest hotspot, considering the responses of distinct reproductive groups (oviparous and viviparous). We assessed the species richness and turnover patterns affected by climate change and projected the threat status of each snake species at the end of the century. We also evaluated the effectiveness of the protected areas in safeguarding the species by estimating the mean percentage overlap between snake species distribution and protected areas (PAs) network and by assessing whether such areas will gain or lose species under climate change. Our results showed greater species richness in the eastern-central portion of the Atlantic Forest at present. In general, we evidenced a drastic range contraction of the snake species under climate change. Temporal turnover tends to be high in the western and north-eastern edges of the biome, particularly for oviparous species. Our predictions indicate that 73.6% of oviparous species and 67.6% of viviparous species could lose at least half of their original range by 2080. We also found that existing protected areas of the Atlantic Forest Hotspot have a very limited capacity to safeguard snakes at the current time, maintaining the precarious protection in the future, with the majority of them predicted to lose species at the end of this century. Although oviparous and viviparous snakes have been designated to be dramatically impacted, our study suggests a greater fragility of the former in the face of climate change. We advocated that the creation of new protected areas and/or the redesign of the existing network to harbour regions that maximize the snake species occupancy in the face of future warming scenarios are crucial measures for the conservation of this group.

摘要

爬行动物对气候变化高度敏感,主要在繁殖过程中对温度和降雨量的变化产生负面影响。基于此,我们评估了气候变化对大西洋森林热点地区蛇类出现的气候适宜区的影响,同时考虑了不同繁殖群体(卵生和胎生)的反应。我们评估了受气候变化影响的物种丰富度和周转率模式,并预测了每个蛇种在本世纪末的威胁状况。我们还通过估计蛇类分布与保护区(PA)网络之间的平均重叠百分比,并评估在气候变化下这些区域是否会获得或失去物种,来评估保护区保护物种的有效性。我们的研究结果表明,目前大西洋森林的中东部地区具有更高的物种丰富度。总体而言,我们发现蛇类的范围在气候变化下急剧收缩。生物群落西部和东北部边缘的时间周转率往往较高,特别是对于卵生物种。我们的预测表明,到 2080 年,73.6%的卵生物种和 67.6%的胎生物种可能会失去其原始范围的一半以上。我们还发现,目前大西洋森林热点地区现有的保护区保护蛇类的能力非常有限,未来保护形势岌岌可危,其中大多数保护区预计将在本世纪末失去物种。尽管卵生和胎生蛇类受到的影响很大,但我们的研究表明,前者在气候变化面前更为脆弱。我们主张,在未来气候变暖的情况下,创建新的保护区和/或重新设计现有的网络,以容纳最大限度增加蛇类物种占有率的区域,是保护该群体的关键措施。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8a11/6561978/9c8ba550476d/41598_2019_44732_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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