ACT Health, Canberra, Australia.
The Australian Prevention Partnership Centre, Sax Institute, Sydney, Australia.
PLoS One. 2019 Jun 27;14(6):e0218875. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0218875. eCollection 2019.
System science approaches are increasingly used to explore complex public health problems. Quantitative methods, such as participatory dynamic simulation modelling, can mobilise knowledge to inform health policy decisions. However, the analytic and practical steps required to turn collaboratively developed, qualitative system maps into rigorous and policy-relevant quantified dynamic simulation models are not well described. This paper reports on the processes, interactions and decisions that occurred at the interface between modellers and end-user participants in an applied health sector case study focusing on diabetes in pregnancy.
An analysis was conducted using qualitative data from a participatory dynamic simulation modelling case study in an Australian health policy setting. Recordings of participatory model development workshops and subsequent meetings were analysed and triangulated with field notes and other written records of discussions and decisions. Case study vignettes were collated to illustrate the deliberations and decisions made throughout the model development process.
The key analytic objectives and decision-making processes included: defining the model scope; analysing and refining the model structure to maximise local relevance and utility; reviewing and incorporating evidence to inform model parameters and assumptions; focusing the model on priority policy questions; communicating results and applying the models to policy processes. These stages did not occur sequentially; the model development was cyclical and iterative with decisions being re-visited and refined throughout the process. Storytelling was an effective strategy to both communicate and resolve concerns about the model logic and structure, and to communicate the outputs of the model to a broader audience.
The in-depth analysis reported here examined the application of participatory modelling methods to move beyond qualitative conceptual mapping to the development of a rigorously quantified and policy relevant, complex dynamic simulation model. The analytic objectives and decision-making themes identified provide guidance for interpreting, understanding and reporting future participatory modelling projects and methods.
系统科学方法越来越多地被用于探索复杂的公共卫生问题。定量方法，如参与式动态模拟建模，可以调动知识为卫生政策决策提供信息。然而，将合作开发的定性系统图转化为严格且与政策相关的定量动态模拟模型所需的分析和实践步骤尚未得到很好的描述。本文报告了在一个关注妊娠糖尿病的应用卫生部门案例研究中，模型制作者和最终用户参与者之间接口处发生的过程、交互和决策。
对澳大利亚卫生政策背景下参与式动态模拟建模案例研究中的定性数据进行了分析。对参与式模型开发研讨会和随后的会议记录进行了分析，并与实地笔记和其他讨论和决策的书面记录进行了三角分析。收集了案例研究小插曲来说明整个模型开发过程中的审议和决策。
关键分析目标和决策过程包括：定义模型范围；分析和细化模型结构，以最大限度地提高本地相关性和实用性；审查和纳入证据以告知模型参数和假设；将模型重点放在优先政策问题上；沟通结果并将模型应用于政策过程。这些阶段不是顺序进行的；模型开发是循环和迭代的，在整个过程中重新审视和完善决策。讲故事是一种有效的策略，既可以传达和解决对模型逻辑和结构的担忧，也可以将模型的输出传达给更广泛的受众。
这里报告的深入分析检查了参与式建模方法的应用，以超越定性概念映射，发展出严格的定量和与政策相关的复杂动态模拟模型。确定的分析目标和决策主题为解释、理解和报告未来的参与式建模项目和方法提供了指导。
