Brianna Osetinsky is a PhD candidate in the Department of Health Services, Policy, and Practice, Brown University School of Public Health, in Providence, Rhode Island.
Jan A. C. Hontelez is an assistant professor in the Department of Public Health at Erasmus MC, Erasmus University Rotterdam, in the Netherlands, and at the Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University, in Germany.
Health Aff (Millwood). 2019 Jul;38(7):1173-1181. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2018.05287.
Health systems in sub-Saharan Africa are facing an ongoing HIV epidemic and increasing burden of noncommunicable disease. With the focus shifting to the development of comprehensive primary health care and chronic disease treatment, multidisease modeling is integral to estimating future health care needs. We extended an established agent-based model of HIV transmission to include hypertension in two rural settings: KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and western Kenya. We estimated that from 2018 to 2028 hypertension prevalence would increase from 40 percent to 46 percent in KwaZulu-Natal and from 29 percent to 35 percent in western Kenya, while HIV prevalence is stabilizing and predicted to decrease. As the health system burden in sub-Saharan Africa is changing, innovative chronic disease treatment and the broadening of successful programs, such as integrated HIV and noncommunicable disease care, are necessary to reach universal health care coverage.
撒哈拉以南非洲的卫生系统正面临着持续的艾滋病毒流行和不断增加的非传染性疾病负担。随着重点转向综合初级卫生保健和慢性病治疗的发展，多疾病建模对于估计未来的医疗保健需求至关重要。我们扩展了一个已建立的艾滋病毒传播的基于代理的模型，以包括南非夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省和肯尼亚西部的两个农村地区的高血压。我们估计，从 2018 年到 2028 年，南非夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省的高血压患病率将从 40%增加到 46%，肯尼亚西部的高血压患病率将从 29%增加到 35%，而艾滋病毒的流行率正在稳定，并预计会下降。随着撒哈拉以南非洲的卫生系统负担正在发生变化，需要创新的慢性病治疗方法，并扩大成功的项目，如综合艾滋病毒和非传染性疾病护理，以实现全民健康覆盖。
