Instituto Nacional de Investigación e Ingeniería Ambiental, Universidad de San Martín, San Martín, Argentina.
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Ecohealth. 2019 Sep;16(3):558-569. doi: 10.1007/s10393-019-01425-3. Epub 2019 Jul 23.
Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is a severe emerging endemic disease of the Americas. Because hantavirus reservoirs are sylvatic rodents, HPS risk has been associated with occupational and recreational activities in natural and rural environments. The aim of this study was to analyze the risk of HPS in an endemic province of Argentina. For this, we explored the relationship between HPS cases occurring in Entre Ríos province between 2004 and 2015 and climate, vegetation, landscape, reservoir population, and rodent community characteristics by means of generalized linear models. We modeled HPS occurrence at each site, and both the incidence and number of cases grouped by department. The resulting best model of each analysis was applied in a GIS to build HPS risk maps. Risk of occurrence of HPS increased with tree cover and decreased with distance to rivers. We identified the south of Entre Ríos as the area with higher HPS risk, and therefore, where HPS prevention measures should be more urgently applied. Risk maps based on data available in the public domain are a useful tool that should be used by decision makers to concentrate surveillance and control efforts in those areas with highest HPS risk.
汉坦病毒肺综合征（HPS）是美洲一种严重的新发地方病。由于汉坦病毒的储存宿主是森林啮齿动物，因此与职业和娱乐活动有关，这些活动发生在自然和农村环境中。本研究旨在分析阿根廷一个地方病流行省份的 HPS 风险。为此，我们通过广义线性模型探讨了 2004 年至 2015 年期间在 Entre Ríos 省发生的 HPS 病例与气候、植被、景观、水库种群和啮齿动物群落特征之间的关系。我们对每个地点的 HPS 发生情况进行建模，以及按部门分组的发病率和病例数。对每个分析的最佳模型进行 GIS 应用，以构建 HPS 风险图。HPS 发生的风险随着树木覆盖面积的增加而增加，随着与河流的距离的增加而降低。我们确定了 Entre Ríos 省的南部为 HPS 风险较高的地区，因此应更紧急地在该地区采取 HPS 预防措施。基于公共领域可用数据的风险图是决策者集中监测和控制高风险 HPS 地区的有用工具。
