Department of Disaster and Emergency Health, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Harvard University, Cambridge, USA.
Environ Monit Assess. 2019 Jul 24;191(8):506. doi: 10.1007/s10661-019-7662-2.
Iran as a developing country is experiencing the industrialization process quickly and is thus exposed to different industrial hazards mostly derived from chemicals. In the light of this problem, this study estimated the human vulnerability in chemical accidents using the software simulation of accidental chlorine gas releases. A mixed method (qualitative and quantitative) study carried out in 4 phases during 2015-2017 in Ray County, Tehran Province. It included a systematic literature review, software simulation, Fuzzy Delphi Analytical Hierarchy Process (FDAHP) hierarchy process study, and creating a reliable tool for purpose of this study in at-risk areas. The valuable finding indicated that decreasing the human vulnerability depends on both social and physical characteristics of area and even the social vulnerability indicators have more important role when compared with the physical vulnerability indicators. The statistical analysis revealed that the human vulnerability has the significant relationship with factors such as type of living place (rural or urban) areas, nationality, economic situation of households, the distance between housing and the nearest exit to main road, health centers, and manufacturing or storing chemical plants (P value < 0.01). The result also showed that the area under study is vulnerable from average to very high, both in its physical and social domains, against industrial chemical accidents. Additional comparative studies are needed to develop and generalize the appropriate set of indicators of human vulnerability to human induced disasters in Iran.
伊朗作为一个发展中国家，正在迅速经历工业化进程，因此面临着各种工业危害，主要来自化学物质。鉴于这一问题，本研究使用事故氯气释放软件模拟来评估化学事故中的人类脆弱性。这是一项在 2015 年至 2017 年期间在德黑兰省雷伊县进行的混合方法（定性和定量）研究，包括系统文献综述、软件模拟、模糊德尔菲层次分析法（FDAHP）层次分析研究，以及在高风险地区创建一个用于该研究的可靠工具。有价值的发现表明，降低人类脆弱性取决于区域的社会和物理特征，甚至社会脆弱性指标比物理脆弱性指标更重要。统计分析表明，人类脆弱性与生活地点类型（农村或城市）、国籍、家庭经济状况、住房与通往主要道路最近出口之间的距离、医疗中心以及制造或储存化工厂之间存在显著关系（P 值<0.01）。结果还表明，研究区域在物理和社会领域都容易受到工业化学事故的影响，脆弱程度从平均到非常高。需要进行额外的比较研究，以开发和推广伊朗人为灾害的人类脆弱性适当指标集。
