State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China.
Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352, USA.
Environ Int. 2019 Nov;132:105111. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2019.105111. Epub 2019 Aug 30.
The serious fine particle (PM) pollution in China causes millions of premature deaths. Driven by swift economic growth and stringent control policies, air pollutant emissions in China have changed significantly in the last decade, but the change in the source contribution of PM-related health impacts remains unclear. In this study, we develop a multi-pollutant emission inventory in China for 2005-2015, and combine chemical transport modeling, ambient/household exposure evaluation and health impact assessment to quantify the contribution of eight emission sectors to PM exposure and associated health risk. From 2005 to 2015, the mortality due to PM from ambient air pollution (AAP) decreases from 1.04 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-1.25) million to 0.87 (0.70-1.04) million. The agricultural sector contributes 25% and 32% to ambient PM-attributed mortality in 2005 and 2015, respectively, representing the largest contributor during this period. The contribution of power plants drops monotonously from 13% to 6%. The percentage contribution of industrial process drops significantly while the contribution of industrial combustion stays the same level. The overall contribution of industry is still as large as 26% in 2015 in spite of strict control measures. For transportation, despite strict emission standards, its contribution increases remarkably due to the rapid growth of vehicle population. When both ambient and household PM exposures are taken into account, the mortality due to integrated population-weighted exposure to PM (IPWE) drops from 1.78 (1.46-2.09) million in 2005 to 1.28 (1.05-1.52) million in 2015. Most of the IPWE reduction comes from domestic combustion as a result of urbanization and improved income, whereas this sector remains the largest contributor (58%) to IPWE-related health risk in 2015. Our results suggest that the government should dynamically adjust the air pollution control strategy according to the change in source contributions. Domestic combustion and agriculture should be prioritized considering their predominant contributions to mortality and the lack of effective control policies. More stringent control measures for industry and transportation are necessary since the existing policies have not adequately reduced their health impacts. Electricity production is no longer the top priority of air pollution control policies given its lower health impact compared with that of other sources.
中国严重的细颗粒物（PM）污染导致数百万人过早死亡。在中国经济的快速增长和严格的控制政策的推动下，过去十年间，空气污染物排放量发生了显著变化，但 PM 相关健康影响的源贡献变化仍不清楚。在这项研究中，我们开发了 2005-2015 年中国多污染物排放清单，并结合化学输送模型、环境/家庭暴露评估和健康影响评估，量化了八个排放部门对 PM 暴露和相关健康风险的贡献。2005 年至 2015 年，由大气污染引起的 PM 造成的死亡率从 104 万人（95%置信区间，84-125 人）降至 87 万人（70-104 人）。在 2005 年和 2015 年，农业部门分别对环境 PM 归因死亡率的贡献为 25%和 32%，是这一时期最大的贡献者。电厂的贡献从 13%单调下降到 6%。工业过程的贡献显著下降，而工业燃烧的贡献保持不变。尽管采取了严格的控制措施，工业的总体贡献在 2015 年仍高达 26%。对于交通部门，尽管实施了严格的排放标准，但由于车辆数量的快速增长，其贡献显著增加。当同时考虑环境和家庭 PM 暴露时，综合人口加权 PM 暴露（IPWE）导致的死亡率从 2005 年的 178 万人（146-209 人）降至 2015 年的 128 万人（105-152 人）。IPWE 减少的大部分原因是由于城市化和收入提高导致的国内燃烧，而这一部门仍然是 2015 年与 IPWE 相关的健康风险的最大贡献者（58%）。我们的研究结果表明，政府应根据源贡献的变化，动态调整空气污染控制策略。由于国内燃烧和农业对死亡率的主要贡献以及缺乏有效的控制政策，应优先考虑这两个部门。由于现有政策尚未充分降低其健康影响，因此需要对工业和交通部门采取更严格的控制措施。鉴于与其他来源相比，电力生产的健康影响较低，它不再是空气污染控制政策的首要任务。
