Department of Acute Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, 172, Jiangsu Rd, Nanjing, 210009, Jiangsu Province, China.
Department of Food Safety and Evaluation, Jiangsu Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, 172, Jiangsu Rd, Nanjing, 210009, Jiangsu Province, China.
Sci Rep. 2023 Nov 16;13(1):20024. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-46690-z.
The marked increase in the incidence rate of brucellosis is a serious public health concern in Jiangsu Province. However, its temporal and spatial distribution has not been studied in depth. The main purpose of this study is to depict the demographic, temporal and spatial distribution patterns and clustering characteristics of brucellosis cases in Jiangsu Province, China, from 2006 to 2021 to develop and implement effective scientific prevention and control strategies. Data for human brucellosis cases in Jiangsu Province from 2006 to 2021 were obtained from the Nationwide Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System (NIDRIS). Spatial autocorrelation analysis and temporal-spatial scan statistics were used to identify potential changes in the spatial and temporal distributions of human brucellosis in Jiangsu Province. During the years 2006-2021, 1347 brucellosis cases were reported in Jiangsu Province, with an average annual incidence rate of 0.1036 per 100,000 individuals. Middle-aged and elderly individuals (aged 40-69 years) were the main infected populations, accounting for 69.72% (939/1347) of all reported cases. The incidence of brucellosis in Jiangsu showed a long-term increasing trend and displayed pronounced seasonal variations, with the peak occurring between April and June annually. The incidence gradually expanded from the northern and southern areas to the central areas between 2006 and 2021. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis demonstrated a positive correlation in the incidence of brucellosis between 2008 and 2012-2021. Temporal-spatial clustering analysis showed that the primary cluster was detected in the northern, highly endemic regions of Jiangsu, and the three secondary clusters were in areas where there had been outbreaks of brucellosis. Human brucellosis remains a serious public health issue in Jiangsu Province. Northern and southern Jiangsu regions, with high rates of brucellosis, may require special plans and measures to monitor and control the disease. Additionally, the capacity to respond to outbreaks in high-incidence areas should be improved to prevent further brucellosis outbreaks.
布鲁氏菌病发病率的显著增加是江苏省严重的公共卫生问题。然而，其时间和空间分布尚未得到深入研究。本研究的主要目的是描述 2006 年至 2021 年中国江苏省布鲁氏菌病病例的人口统计学、时间和空间分布模式及聚类特征，以制定和实施有效的科学预防和控制策略。江苏省人类布鲁氏菌病病例数据来自 2006 年至 2021 年全国传染病报告信息管理系统（NIDRIS）。采用空间自相关分析和时空扫描统计方法，确定江苏省人类布鲁氏菌病时空分布的潜在变化。2006-2021 年，江苏省共报告布鲁氏菌病 1347 例，年平均发病率为 0.1036/10 万。中年和老年人群（40-69 岁）是主要感染人群，占所有报告病例的 69.72%（939/1347）。江苏省布鲁氏菌病发病率呈长期上升趋势，季节性变化明显，每年 4-6 月为发病高峰。发病率从 2006 年至 2021 年逐渐从北部和南部地区向中部地区扩大。全球空间自相关分析表明，2008 年至 2012-2021 年布鲁氏菌病发病率呈正相关。时空聚类分析显示，主要聚集区位于江苏省北部高流行区，三个次聚集区位于布鲁氏菌病暴发地区。江苏省人布鲁氏菌病仍然是一个严重的公共卫生问题。布鲁氏菌病高发的江苏北部和南部地区可能需要特别的计划和措施来监测和控制疾病。此外，应提高应对高发地区疫情的能力，以防止进一步暴发布鲁氏菌病。
