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ARIMA 模型对 COVID-19 疫情影响下的多种蔬菜价格的预测分析。

ARIMA model forecasting analysis of the prices of multiple vegetables under the impact of the COVID-19.

机构信息

School of Logistics and Transportation, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, Hunan, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2022 Jul 28;17(7):e0271594. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0271594. eCollection 2022.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0271594
PMID:35901077
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9333317/
Abstract

As a large agricultural country, China's vegetable prices affect the increase in production and income of farmers and the daily life of urban and rural residents and influence the healthy development of Chinese agriculture. 51,567 vegetable price data of 2020 are analyzed to determine the factors that influence vegetable price fluctuations in two dimensions (vertical and horizontal) in the special context of the COVID-19, and an ARIMA model of short-term price prediction is then employed and evaluated. Based on the factors affecting vegetable prices, the results of the model are further examined. Finally, pertinent suggestions are made for the development of the local vegetable industry in the post-epidemic era.

摘要

作为一个农业大国，中国蔬菜价格的变动影响着农民的增产增收和城乡居民的日常生活，也影响着中国农业的健康发展。本文选取了 2020 年的 51567 条蔬菜价格数据，在新冠疫情这一特殊背景下，从纵横两个维度分析影响蔬菜价格波动的因素，并运用 ARIMA 模型进行短期价格预测和评价，根据影响蔬菜价格的因素对模型结果进行进一步检验，最后针对后疫情时代本地蔬菜产业的发展提出相关建议。

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