Ginsburg Carren, Bocquier Philippe, Béguy Donatien, Afolabi Sulaimon, Derra Karim, Augusto Orvalho, Otiende Mark, Odhiambo Frank, Zabré Pascal, Soura Abdramane, White Michael J, Collinson Mark A
Medical Research Council/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Centre de Recherche en Démographie et Sociétés, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.
Demogr Res. 2016 Jan-Jun;34:845-884. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2016.34.30. Epub 2016 May 26.
Education, as a key indicator of human capital, is considered one of the major determinants of internal migration, with previous studies suggesting that human capital accumulates in urban areas at the expense of rural areas. However, there is fragmentary evidence concerning the educational correlates of internal migration in sub-Saharan Africa.
The study questions whether more precise measures of migration in Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) populations support the hypothesis that migrants are self-selected on human capital and more educated people are more likely to leave rural areas or enter urban areas within a geographical region.
Using unique longitudinal data representing approximately 900,000 people living in eight sub-Saharan African HDSS sites that are members of the INDEPTH Network, the paper uses Event History Analysis techniques to examine the relationship between formal educational attainment and in-and out-migration, over the period 2009 to 2011.
Between 7% and 27% of these local populations are moving in or out of the HDSS area over this period. Education is positively associated with both in-and out-migration in the Kenyan HDSS areas; however, the education effect has no clear pattern in the HDSS sites in Burkina Faso, Mozambique, and South Africa.
Empirical results presented in this paper confirm a strong age profile of migration consistent with human capital expectation, yet the results point to variability in the association of education and the propensity to migrate. In particular, the hypothesis of a shift of human capital from rural to urban areas is not universally valid.
教育作为人力资本的关键指标，被视为国内人口迁移的主要决定因素之一，此前的研究表明，人力资本在城市地区积累，而以农村地区为代价。然而，关于撒哈拉以南非洲地区国内人口迁移与教育之间关系的证据并不完整。
本研究探讨健康与人口监测系统（HDSS）人群中更精确的迁移测量方法是否支持以下假设：移民是根据人力资本自我选择的，受教育程度更高的人更有可能离开农村地区或进入地理区域内的城市地区。
利用代表生活在深度网络（INDEPTH Network）八个撒哈拉以南非洲HDSS站点的约90万人的独特纵向数据，本文采用事件史分析技术，研究2009年至2011年期间正规教育程度与迁入和迁出迁移之间的关系。
在此期间，这些当地人口中有7%至27%的人迁入或迁出HDSS地区。在肯尼亚的HDSS地区，教育与迁入和迁出迁移均呈正相关；然而，在布基纳法索、莫桑比克和南非的HDSS站点，教育效应没有明显模式。
本文给出的实证结果证实了与人力资本预期一致的强烈的迁移年龄分布，但结果表明教育与迁移倾向之间的关联存在差异。特别是，人力资本从农村向城市地区转移的假设并不普遍成立。
