Gates Open Res. 2019 Sep 26;3:1546. doi: 10.12688/gatesopenres.13068.2. eCollection 2019.
(TS), responsible for porcine cysticercosis, human taeniasis and (neuro)cysticercosis, was included in the World Health Organization neglected tropical disease (NTD) roadmap published in 2012. Targets set in this roadmap have not been met, but has been included in the consultation process for the new 2030 goals proposed for priority NTDs. transmission dynamics models can contribute to this process. A recent review has compared existing transmission models, identifying their similarities and differences in structure, parameterization and modelled intervention approaches. While a formal model comparison to investigate the impact of interventions is yet to be conducted, the models agree on the importance of coverage for intervention effectiveness and on the fact that human- and pig-focused interventions can be optimally combined. One of these models, cystiSim, an individual-based, stochastic model has been used to assess field-applicable interventions, some currently under evaluation in on-going trials in Zambia. The EPICYST, population-based, deterministic model has highlighted, based on simulating a generic sub-Saharan Africa setting, the higher efficacy (measured as the percentage of human cysticercosis cases prevented) of biomedical interventions (human and pig treatment and pig vaccination) compared to improved husbandry, sanitation, and meat inspection. Important questions remain regarding which strategies and combinations thereof provide sustainable solutions for severely resource-constrained endemic settings. Defining realistic timeframes to achieve feasible targets, and establishing suitable measures of effectiveness for these targets that can be quantified with current monitoring and evaluation tools, are current major barriers to identifying validated strategies. transmission models can support setting achievable 2030 goals; however, the refinement of these models is first required. Incorporating socio-economic elements, improved understanding of underlying biological processes, and consideration of spatial dynamics are key knowledge gaps that need addressing to support model development.
导致猪囊尾蚴病、人类绦虫病和（神经）囊尾蚴病的猪带绦虫被纳入2012年发布的世界卫生组织被忽视热带病（NTD）路线图。该路线图设定的目标尚未实现，但已被纳入为优先被忽视热带病提出的2030年新目标的协商进程。传播动力学模型可有助于这一进程。最近的一项综述比较了现有的传播模型，确定了它们在结构、参数化和模拟干预方法方面的异同。虽然尚未进行正式的模型比较以研究干预措施的影响，但这些模型在干预效果的覆盖范围的重要性以及以人和猪为重点的干预措施可实现最佳结合这一事实方面达成了一致。其中一个模型cystiSim，是一个基于个体的随机模型，已被用于评估适用于实地的干预措施，其中一些目前正在赞比亚进行的试验中接受评估。基于人群的确定性模型EPICYST，通过模拟撒哈拉以南非洲的一般情况，突出了生物医学干预措施（人和猪的治疗以及猪的疫苗接种）与改善饲养、卫生和肉类检查相比，具有更高的疗效（以预防的人类囊尾蚴病病例百分比衡量）。关于哪些策略及其组合可为资源严重受限的流行地区提供可持续解决方案，仍然存在重要问题。确定实现可行目标的现实时间框架，以及为这些目标建立可通过当前监测和评估工具进行量化的合适有效性衡量标准，是确定经过验证的策略的当前主要障碍。传播模型可支持设定可实现的2030年目标；然而，首先需要对这些模型进行完善。纳入社会经济因素、更好地理解潜在的生物学过程以及考虑空间动态是支持模型开发需要解决的关键知识空白。
