Economics Department, FEAS, Yıldız Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Jan;27(2):2248-2263. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-06586-w. Epub 2019 Nov 27.
The related literature reveal that the papers on environmental pollution do not sufficiently analyse the cement production which is an important determinant of air pollution and health problems by using econometric methods. To fill this gap, this paper aims to examine the relationship between cement production, air pollution, mortality rate, and economic growth by employing MS Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (MScBVAR) and Markov Switching Bayesian Granger causality (MScBGC) approaches from 1960 to 2017 for China, Brazil, India, Turkey and the USA. MSIA(2)-BVAR(1) model for China, MSIAH(2)-BVAR(3) models for India, MSIAH(3)-BVAR(2) for Brazil, and MSIAH(3)-BVAR(1) for Turkey, and MSIAH(2)-BVAR(2) for the USA were selected. The MScBGC results revealed that the cement production is granger cause of mortality rate, air pollution, and economic growth in all regimes for China, India, Brazil, Turkey, and the USA.
相关文献表明，关于环境污染的论文并没有充分利用计量经济学方法来分析水泥生产，而水泥生产是空气污染和健康问题的一个重要决定因素。为了填补这一空白，本文旨在利用 MS 贝叶斯向量自回归（MScBVAR）和马尔可夫切换贝叶斯格兰杰因果关系（MScBGC）方法，从 1960 年到 2017 年，对中国、巴西、印度、土耳其和美国的水泥生产、空气污染、死亡率和经济增长之间的关系进行检验。为中国选择了 MSIA(2)-BVAR(1)模型，为印度选择了 MSIAH(2)-BVAR(3)模型，为巴西选择了 MSIAH(3)-BVAR(2)模型，为土耳其选择了 MSIAH(3)-BVAR(1)模型，为美国选择了 MSIAH(2)-BVAR(2)模型。MScBGC 的结果表明，在中国、印度、巴西、土耳其和美国的所有体系中，水泥生产都是死亡率、空气污染和经济增长的格兰杰原因。
