A nomogram for the prediction of overall survival in patients with stage II and III non-small cell lung cancer using a population-based study.

As a malignant tumor with poor prognosis, accurate and effective treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is crucial. To predict overall survival in patients with stage II and III NSCLC, a nomogram was constructed using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. Eligible patients with NSCLC with available clinical information diagnosed between January 1, 2010 and November 31, 2015 were selected from the database, and the data were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify prognostic factors with a threshold of P<0.05, and a nomogram was constructed. Harrell's concordance indexes and calibration plots were used to verify the predictive power of the model. Risk group stratification by stage was also performed. A total of 15,344 patients with stage II and III NSCLC were included in the study. The 3- and 5-year survival rates were 0.382 and 0.278, respectively. The training and validation sets comprised 10,744 and 4,600 patients, respectively. Age, sex, race, marital status, histology, grade, Tumor-Node-Metastasis T and N stage, surgery type, extent of lymph node dissection, radiation therapy and chemotherapy were identified as prognostic factors for the construction of the nomogram. The nomogram exhibited a clinical predictive ability of 0.719 (95% CI, 0.718-0.719) in the training set and 0.721 (95% CI, 0.720-0.722) in the validation set. The predicted calibration curve was similar to the standard curve. In addition, the nomogram was able to divide the patients into groups according to stage IIA, IIB, IIIA, and IIIB NSCLC. Thus, the nomogram provided predictive results for stage II and III NSCLC patients and accurately determined the 3- and 5-year overall survival of patients.