Institute of Electronics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Institute of Electronics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Personalized Management of Chronic Respiratory Disease, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, China.
Comput Methods Programs Biomed. 2020 May;188:105267. doi: 10.1016/j.cmpb.2019.105267. Epub 2019 Dec 9.
OBJECTIVES: Identifying acute exacerbations in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPDs) is of utmost importance for reducing the associated mortality and financial burden. In this research, the authors aimed to develop identification models for AECOPDs and to compare the relative performance of different modeling paradigms to find the best model for this task. METHODS: Data were extracted from electronic medical records (EMRs) of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease who admitted to the China-Japan Friendship Hospital between February 2011 and March 2017. Five machine learning algorithms (random forest, support vector machine, logistic regression, K-nearest neighbor and naïve Bayes) were used to develop the AECOPDs identification models. Feature selection was performed to find an optimal feature subset. 10-folds cross-validation was used to find the best hyperparameters for each model. The following metrics: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were used to evaluate the performance of these models. RESULTS: A total of 303 EMRs (AECOPDs patients:135; None AECOPDs patients: 168) were included in the study. The SVM model obtained the best performance (sensitivity: 0.80, specificity: 0.83, positive predictive value:0.81, negative predictive value:0.85 and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.90) after performing feature selection. CONCLUSIONS: Our research confirms that the proposed model based on the support vector machine is a powerful tool to identify AECOPDs patients, and it is promising to provide decision support for clinicians when they are struggling to give a confirmed clinical diagnosis.
目的:识别慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)急性加重(AECOPDs)对于降低相关死亡率和经济负担至关重要。本研究旨在开发 AECOPDs 识别模型,并比较不同建模范例的相对性能,以找到该任务的最佳模型。
方法:从 2011 年 2 月至 2017 年 3 月期间在中国-日本友好医院住院的 COPD 患者的电子病历(EMRs)中提取数据。使用五种机器学习算法(随机森林、支持向量机、逻辑回归、K-最近邻和朴素贝叶斯)开发 AECOPDs 识别模型。进行特征选择以找到最佳特征子集。使用 10 折交叉验证为每个模型找到最佳超参数。使用以下指标评估这些模型的性能:接收器工作特征曲线下面积、敏感性、特异性、阳性预测值和阴性预测值。
结果:共纳入 303 份 EMR(AECOPDs 患者:135 例;非 AECOPDs 患者:168 例)。经过特征选择后,SVM 模型获得了最佳性能(敏感性:0.80,特异性:0.83,阳性预测值:0.81,阴性预测值:0.85,接收器工作特征曲线下面积:0.90)。
结论:我们的研究证实,基于支持向量机的提出的模型是识别 AECOPDs 患者的有力工具,有望为临床医生在努力做出明确的临床诊断时提供决策支持。
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