巴西 2012 年至 2016 年艾滋病发病率的时空分布。
Spatiotemporal distribution of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome incidence in Brazil between 2012 and 2016.
机构信息
Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brasil.
Universidade de Ribeirão Preto, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brasil.
出版信息
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. 2019 Dec 20;53:e20190086. doi: 10.1590/0037-8682-0086-2019. eCollection 2019.
INTRODUCTION
Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) remains a major public health issue in Brazil. This ecological study aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution of notified new AIDS cases in Brazil between 2012 and 2016.
METHODS
A Bayesian spatiotemporal model based on the Poisson distribution was used to obtain smoothed incidence estimates of AIDS in each of the 133 Brazilian intermediate regions.
RESULTS
Spatial distribution of new AIDS cases is highly heterogeneous. Regions with higher gross domestic product per capita tend to have higher incidence rates of AIDS.
CONCLUSIONS
Strategies to prevent and control AIDS should consider regional differences.
简介
艾滋病（AIDS）仍然是巴西的一个主要公共卫生问题。本生态研究旨在评估 2012 年至 2016 年期间巴西新艾滋病病例的时空分布。
方法
使用基于泊松分布的贝叶斯时空模型，对巴西 133 个中间区域的艾滋病新发病例进行平滑发病率估计。
结果
新艾滋病病例的空间分布高度不均匀。人均国内生产总值较高的地区艾滋病发病率往往较高。
结论
预防和控制艾滋病的策略应考虑地区差异。
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