Public Health Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
Transportation Research and Injury Prevention Programme, Indian Institute of Technology - Delhi, New Delhi, India.
Int J Inj Contr Saf Promot. 2020 Mar;27(1):83-90. doi: 10.1080/17457300.2019.1708411. Epub 2020 Jan 7.
Despite strong advocacy, the UN Decade of Action for Road Safety (2011-2020) is ending with most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) no closer to the Sustainable Development Goals target of reducing traffic mortality by half. In contrast, most high-income countries (HICs) have seen large benefits in recent decades from large-scale safety interventions. We aimed to assess how much LMICs would benefit from interventions that address six key risk factors related to helmet use, seatbelt use, speed control, drink driving, and vehicle design for safety of occupants and pedestrians. We use a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate mortality and health loss (disability adjusted life years lost, DALYs) that would be averted if these risks were reduced through intervention. We estimate effects for six countries that span all developing regions: China, Colombia, Ethiopia, India, Iran, and Russia. We find relatively large benefits (27% reductions in road traffic deaths and DALYs) from speed control in all countries, and about 5%-20% reductions due to other interventions depending on who is at risk in each country. To achieve larger gains, LMICs would need to move beyond simply learning from HICs and undertake new research to address risk factors particularly relevant to their context.
尽管大力倡导，但联合国道路安全行动十年（2011-2020 年）即将结束，大多数中低收入国家（LMICs）距离减少交通死亡率一半的可持续发展目标仍相差甚远。相比之下，大多数高收入国家（HICs）在过去几十年中从大规模安全干预措施中受益匪浅。我们旨在评估中低收入国家从针对与头盔使用、安全带使用、速度控制、酒后驾车和车辆设计有关的六个关键风险因素的干预措施中受益多少，这些干预措施可以减少这些风险。我们使用比较风险评估框架来估计如果通过干预减少这些风险，将避免的死亡率和健康损失（残疾调整生命年损失，DALYs）。我们估计了涵盖所有发展中地区的六个国家的效果：中国、哥伦比亚、埃塞俄比亚、印度、伊朗和俄罗斯。我们发现，所有国家的速度控制都带来了相对较大的收益（道路交通死亡人数和 DALYs 减少 27%），而其他干预措施的收益约为 5%-20%，具体取决于每个国家的风险人群。为了获得更大的收益，中低收入国家需要超越简单地向高收入国家学习，并开展新的研究来解决与他们的具体情况特别相关的风险因素。
