2019-nCoV 人际间“初代传播”的巨大潜力。
Potential of large "first generation" human-to-human transmission of 2019-nCoV.
机构信息
Hubei Engineering Research Center of Viral Vector, Wuhan University of Bioengineering, Wuhan, China.
Immunology Innovation Team, School of Medicine, Ningbo University, Ningbo, China.
出版信息
J Med Virol. 2020 Apr;92(4):448-454. doi: 10.1002/jmv.25693. Epub 2020 Feb 14.
Abstract
To investigate the genetic diversity, time origin, and evolutionary history of the 2019-nCoV outbreak in China and Thailand, a total of 12 genome sequences of the virus with known sampling date (24 December 2019 and 13 January 2020) and geographic location (primarily Wuhan city, Hubei Province, China, but also Bangkok, Thailand) were analyzed. Phylogenetic and likelihood-mapping analyses of these genome sequences were performed. On the basis of our results, the star-like signal and topology of 2019-nCoV may be indicative of potentially large "first generation" human-to-human virus transmission. We estimated that 2019-nCoV likely originated in Wuhan on 9 November 2019 (95% credible interval: 25 September 2019 and 19 December 2019), and that Wuhan is the major hub for the spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak in China and elsewhere. Our results could be useful for designing effective prevention strategies for 2019-nCoV in China and beyond.
摘要
为了调查中国和泰国 2019 年新型冠状病毒爆发的遗传多样性、时间起源和进化历史，我们对 12 个具有已知采样日期（2019 年 12 月 24 日和 2020 年 1 月 13 日）和地理位置（主要是中国湖北省武汉市，但也包括泰国曼谷）的病毒基因组序列进行了分析。对这些基因组序列进行了系统发育和似然映射分析。根据我们的研究结果，2019 年新型冠状病毒的星状信号和拓扑结构可能表明存在潜在的大规模“第一代”人与人之间的病毒传播。我们估计 2019 年新型冠状病毒可能于 2019 年 11 月 9 日起源于武汉（95%可信区间：2019 年 9 月 25 日至 12 月 19 日），武汉是 2019 年新型冠状病毒在中国及其他地区爆发的主要传播中心。我们的研究结果有助于在中国及其他地区制定针对 2019 年新型冠状病毒的有效预防策略。
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