ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers, Queensland University of Technology, 2 George St, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia.
School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, Queensland 4059, Australia.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Jan 30;17(3):878. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17030878.
Spatial models are becoming more popular in time-to-event data analysis. Commonly, the intrinsic conditional autoregressive prior is placed on an area level frailty term to allow for correlation between areas. We considered a range of Bayesian Weibull and Cox semiparametric spatial models to describe a dataset on hospitalisation of dengue. This paper aimed to extend these two models, to evaluate the suitability of these models for estimation and prediction of the length of stay, compare different spatial priors, and determine factors that significantly affect the duration of hospital stay for dengue fever patients in the case study location, namely Wahidin hospital in Makassar, Indonesia. We compared two different models with three different spatial priors with respect to goodness of fit and generalisability. For all models considered, the Leroux prior was preferred over the intrinsic conditional autoregressive and independent priors, but Cox and Weibull versions had similar predictive performance, model fit, and results. Age and platelet count were negatively associated with the length of stay, while red blood cell count was positively associated with the length of stay of dengue patients at this hospital. Using appropriate Bayesian spatial survival models enables identification of factors that substantively affect the length of stay.
空间模型在事件时间数据分析中越来越受欢迎。通常，内在条件自回归先验被放置在区域水平的脆弱性项上，以允许区域之间的相关性。我们考虑了一系列贝叶斯 Weibull 和 Cox 半参数空间模型，以描述登革热住院数据集。本文旨在扩展这两个模型，评估这些模型用于估计和预测住院时间的适用性，比较不同的空间先验，并确定在病例研究地点（印度尼西亚望加锡的 Wahidin 医院）显著影响登革热患者住院时间的因素。我们比较了两种不同的模型和三种不同的空间先验在拟合优度和通用性方面的表现。对于所有考虑的模型，Leroux 先验优于内在条件自回归和独立先验，但 Cox 和 Weibull 版本具有相似的预测性能、模型拟合和结果。年龄和血小板计数与住院时间呈负相关，而红细胞计数与该医院登革热患者的住院时间呈正相关。使用适当的贝叶斯空间生存模型可以确定对住院时间有实质性影响的因素。
