Department of Biostatistics, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America.
Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2020 Feb 5;15(2):e0228198. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0228198. eCollection 2020.
This report describes an R package, called the Individualized Coherent Absolute Risk Estimator (iCARE) tool, that allows researchers to build and evaluate models for absolute risk and apply them to estimate an individual's risk of developing disease during a specified time interval based on a set of user defined input parameters. An attractive feature of the software is that it gives users flexibility to update models rapidly based on new knowledge on risk factors and tailor models to different populations by specifying three input arguments: a model for relative risk, an age-specific disease incidence rate and the distribution of risk factors for the population of interest. The tool can handle missing information on risk factors for individuals for whom risks are to be predicted using a coherent approach where all estimates are derived from a single model after appropriate model averaging. The software allows single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to be incorporated into the model using published odds ratios and allele frequencies. The validation component of the software implements the methods for evaluation of model calibration, discrimination and risk-stratification based on independent validation datasets. We provide an illustration of the utility of iCARE for building, validating and applying absolute risk models using breast cancer as an example.
本报告介绍了一个名为个体化一致绝对风险估计器（iCARE）的 R 包，该工具允许研究人员构建和评估绝对风险模型，并根据用户定义的一组输入参数，应用这些模型来估计个体在特定时间段内发生疾病的风险。该软件的一个吸引人的特点是，它为用户提供了根据风险因素的新知识快速更新模型的灵活性，并通过指定三个输入参数将模型定制到不同的人群：一个相对风险模型、一个特定年龄的疾病发病率和感兴趣人群的风险因素分布。该工具可以处理使用一致方法预测风险的个体的风险因素缺失信息，所有估计值都是从单个模型经过适当的模型平均后得出的。该软件允许使用已发表的优势比和等位基因频率将单核苷酸多态性（SNP）纳入模型。该软件的验证部分实现了基于独立验证数据集评估模型校准、区分度和风险分层的方法。我们提供了一个使用乳腺癌作为示例的 iCARE 用于构建、验证和应用绝对风险模型的实用程序的说明。
