Nishiura Hiroshi, Kobayashi Tetsuro, Yang Yichi, Hayashi Katsuma, Miyama Takeshi, Kinoshita Ryo, Linton Natalie M, Jung Sung-Mok, Yuan Baoyin, Suzuki Ayako, Akhmetzhanov Andrei R
Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.
Core Research for Evolutionary Science and Technology, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan.
J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 4;9(2):419. doi: 10.3390/jcm9020419.
From 29 to 31 January 2020, a total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China on three chartered flights. All passengers were screened upon arrival in Japan for symptoms consistent with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection and tested for presence of the virus. Assuming that the mean detection window of the virus can be informed by the mean serial interval (estimated at 7.5 days), the ascertainment rate of infection was estimated at 9.2% (95% confidence interval: 5.0, 20.0). This indicates that the incidence of infection in Wuhan can be estimated at 20,767 infected individuals, including those with asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections. The infection fatality risk (IFR)-the actual risk of death among all infected individuals-is therefore 0.3% to 0.6%, which may be comparable to Asian influenza pandemic of 1957-1958.
2020年1月29日至31日，共有565名日本公民乘坐三架包机从中国武汉撤离。所有乘客抵达日本后均接受了新型冠状病毒（2019 - nCoV）感染相关症状筛查，并进行了病毒检测。假设病毒的平均检测窗口期可通过平均潜伏期（估计为7.5天）得知，感染确诊率估计为9.2%（95%置信区间：5.0，20.0）。这表明武汉的感染发生率估计为20767例感染者，包括无症状和轻症感染者。因此，感染致死风险（IFR）——所有感染者中实际的死亡风险——为0.3%至0.6%，这可能与1957 - 1958年的亚洲流感大流行相当。
