Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
Zeeman Institute and Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Warwick, UK.
Nat Commun. 2020 Feb 14;11(1):906. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-14229-4.
Numerous epidemic models have been developed to capture aspects of human contact patterns, making model selection challenging when they fit (often-scarce) early epidemic data equally well but differ in predictions. Here we consider the invasion of a novel directly transmissible infection and perform an extensive, systematic and transparent comparison of models with explicit age and/or household structure, to determine the accuracy loss in predictions in the absence of interventions when ignoring either or both social components. We conclude that, with heterogeneous and assortative contact patterns relevant to respiratory infections, the model's age stratification is crucial for accurate predictions. Conversely, the household structure is only needed if transmission is highly concentrated in households, as suggested by an empirical but robust rule of thumb based on household secondary attack rate. This work serves as a template to guide the simplicity/accuracy trade-off in designing models aimed at initial, rapid assessment of potential epidemic severity.
已经开发出许多流行性病学模型来捕捉人类接触模式的各个方面，当这些模型能够同样很好地拟合（通常稀缺的）早期流行数据但在预测方面存在差异时，模型选择就具有挑战性。在这里，我们考虑一种新型的直接传播感染的入侵，并对具有明确年龄和/或家庭结构的模型进行广泛、系统和透明的比较，以确定在没有干预措施的情况下忽略一个或两个社会因素时预测的准确性损失。我们的结论是，对于与呼吸道感染相关的异质和聚类接触模式，模型的年龄分层对于准确预测至关重要。相反，如果传播高度集中在家庭中，就像基于家庭二次攻击率的经验但稳健的经验法则所表明的那样，家庭结构才是必要的。这项工作为设计旨在快速评估潜在流行严重程度的模型提供了一个模板，指导简单性/准确性之间的权衡。
