Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK.
Department of earth system science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, Beijing 100084, People's Republic of China.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2020 Apr 3;378(2168):20190209. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2019.0209. Epub 2020 Feb 17.
Multiple natural disasters are becoming ever more frequent around the world, with both climate change and rapid urbanization increasing the risk of such disasters in human society. Comprehensive analysis of the economic impact of multiple disasters on the industrial and economic system has become an urgent and essential part of urban recovery and sustainable development. However, there is a lack of studies that focus on assessing the indirect economic impacts resulting from such multiple events, and thereafter providing a common quantitative approach within their assessment. With the concept of flood footprint and input-output theory, this study proposes a more externally oriented methodology (flood footprint model) for indirect flood footprint (IFF) accounting and offers various extensive sensitivity analyses based on a hypothetical two-flood event. Based on the two-flood case, we conclude that the total flood footprint of a multi-flood within a given region is larger than the sum of individual flood footprints and this is the same for the IFF due to the combination effect, while the flood footprint is highly constrained by factors such as occurrence time and physical damage caused by the ensuing disaster. This article is part of the theme issue 'Urban flood resilience'.
世界范围内的多种自然灾害正变得越来越频繁，气候变化和快速城市化使人类社会面临更多此类灾害的风险。综合分析多种灾害对工业和经济系统的经济影响，已成为城市恢复和可持续发展的当务之急。然而，目前缺乏评估此类多重事件所产生的间接经济影响的研究，并在此评估中提供一种通用的定量方法。本研究以洪水足迹和投入产出理论为概念，提出了一种更面向外部的间接洪水足迹（IFF）核算方法（洪水足迹模型），并基于假设的两次洪水事件进行了各种广泛的敏感性分析。基于两次洪水的案例，我们得出结论，给定区域内多次洪水的总洪水足迹大于单个洪水足迹的总和，这与组合效应导致的 IFF 相同，而洪水足迹受到发生时间等因素的高度限制以及随之而来的灾难造成的物理破坏。本文是“城市洪水恢复力”主题的一部分。
