Faculty of Economics, Autonomous University of Coahuila, Saltillo, Coahuila, Mexico.
Department of Statistics and Data Science, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.
Risk Anal. 2020 Aug;40(8):1612-1631. doi: 10.1111/risa.13497. Epub 2020 May 25.
Hydrometeorological phenomena have increased in intensity and frequency in last decades, with Europe as one of the most affected areas. This accounts for considerable economic losses in the region. Regional adaptation strategies for costs minimization require a comprehensive assessment of the disasters' economic impacts at a multiple-region scale. This article adapts the flood footprint method for multiple-region assessment of total economic impact and applies it to the 2009 Central European Floods event. The flood footprint is an impact accounting framework based on the input-output methodology to economically assess the physical damage (direct) and production shortfalls (indirect) within a region and wider economic networks, caused by a climate disaster. Here, the model is extended through the capital matrix, to enable diverse recovery strategies. According to the results, indirect losses represent a considerable proportion of the total costs of a natural disaster, and most of them occur in nonhighly directly impacted industries. For the 2009 Central European Floods, the indirect losses represent 65% out of total, and 70% of it comes from four industries: business services, manufacture general, construction, and commerce. Additionally, results show that more industrialized economies would suffer more indirect losses than less-industrialized ones, in spite of being less vulnerable to direct shocks. This may link to their specific economic structures of high capital-intensity and strong interindustrial linkages.
在过去几十年中,水文气象现象的强度和频率都有所增加,欧洲是受影响最严重的地区之一。这导致该地区遭受了相当大的经济损失。为了将成本最小化,欧洲需要制定区域适应战略,这需要在多区域范围内全面评估灾害的经济影响。本文采用洪水足迹方法对多区域总经济影响进行评估,并将其应用于 2009 年中欧洪水事件。洪水足迹是一种基于投入产出方法的影响核算框架,用于经济评估气候灾害对一个地区及其更广泛经济网络造成的物理破坏(直接影响)和生产损失(间接影响)。在这里,通过资本矩阵对模型进行扩展,以实现多样化的恢复策略。结果表明,间接损失占自然灾害总成本的相当大比例,其中大部分发生在非高直接受灾行业。对于 2009 年的中欧洪水,间接损失占总成本的 65%,其中 70%来自四个行业:商业服务、一般制造业、建筑和商业。此外,结果还表明,尽管工业化程度较低的经济体直接受冲击的脆弱性较低,但它们遭受的间接损失却比工业化程度较高的经济体多。这可能与它们高资本密集度和强产业间联系的特定经济结构有关。