State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022 May 3;119(18):e2105006119. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2105006119. Epub 2022 Apr 25.
The world has committed trillions in fiscal expenditures to reboot the economy in the post–COVID-19 era. However, the effectiveness and the equity impacts of current fiscal stimuli are not fully understood. Using an extended adaptive regional input–output model, we assess the short-term impacts (2020 through 2022) of feasible stimuli on the global economy and the labor market. Our findings show that the stimuli pledged by 26 countries, i.e., 2.4 trillion euros in total, are effective in keeping the recession short and shallow by saving 53 million to 57 million jobs (compared to the no-stimulus scenario). However, the stimuli exacerbate income inequity at the global scale if we define “equity” as those who suffer more from the pandemic should receive more assistance. Low-skilled workers in these countries, who suffer more from the pandemic than high-skilled workers, benefit 38 to 41% less from the job-creation effects of the current fiscal stimuli. As an alternative, low-carbon stimuli can achieve a balance between effectiveness and equity at the global level. Low-carbon stimuli save 55 million to 58 million jobs and decrease income inequality by 2 to 3% globally compared to the currently pledged stimuli. Country-level situations are more complicated, as modifying the current stimuli to achieve more “greenness” brings win–win in effectiveness and equity in some countries, while in the others, more greenness and equity are at the expense of less job savings. Our findings underscore the need to consider the overlooked trade-offs between effectiveness, equity, and greenness, both globally and nationally, when designing further postpandemic fiscal stimuli.
在新冠疫情后时代，全球各国已投入数万亿美元的财政支出来重启经济。然而，当前财政刺激措施的效果和公平性影响尚未被充分理解。本文利用扩展的适应性区域投入产出模型，评估了可行刺激措施对全球经济和劳动力市场的短期影响（2020 年至 2022 年）。研究结果表明，26 个国家承诺的刺激措施（总计 2.4 万亿欧元）有效避免了经济衰退的长期性和深度，挽救了 5300 万至 5700 万个工作岗位（与无刺激措施的情景相比）。然而，如果将“公平性”定义为那些受疫情影响更大的人应得到更多援助，那么这些刺激措施会加剧全球范围内的收入不平等。在这些国家中，低技能工人比高技能工人受疫情影响更大，他们从当前财政刺激措施的创造就业效应中受益减少 38%至 41%。作为替代方案，低碳刺激措施可以在全球范围内实现效果和公平性之间的平衡。与当前承诺的刺激措施相比，低碳刺激措施可以挽救 5500 万至 5800 万个工作岗位，并在全球范围内降低 2%至 3%的收入不平等。在国家层面上情况更为复杂，因为将当前的刺激措施修改为更“绿色”的方案，在一些国家可以实现效果和公平性的双赢，而在其他国家，更多的绿色化和公平性则是以牺牲更多的工作岗位为代价的。研究结果强调，在设计后疫情时代的进一步财政刺激措施时，需要考虑到全球和国家层面上被忽视的效果、公平性和绿色化之间的权衡取舍。
