Peng Cheng, Zhou Hao, Guan Peng, Wu Wei, Huang De-Sheng
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China.
Department of Impression Evidence Examination Technology, Criminal Investigation Police, University of China, Shenyang, China.
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2020 Sep;67(5):1898-1908. doi: 10.1111/tbed.13518. Epub 2020 Mar 4.
Two epidemiological models were applied to simulate whether animals with latent infections were contagious and calculate the outcomes of people that contracting brucellosis by all possible transmission routes under control measures implemented by the Chinese government. The health and economic burden of brucellosis overall presented an increasing trend from 2004 to 2017. Scenarios from epidemiological models showed that a larger scale of vaccine coverage would contribute to fewer infections in livestock and humans. S2 vaccine, the disinfection of the environment and the protection of the susceptible animals and humans could effectively reverse the trend of increasing brucellosis and reduce the incidence rates of brucellosis in humans to curb the epidemic of brucellosis in China.
应用两种流行病学模型来模拟潜伏感染动物是否具有传染性，并计算在中国政府实施的控制措施下，通过所有可能传播途径感染布鲁氏菌病的人群的感染结果。2004年至2017年，布鲁氏菌病的总体健康和经济负担呈上升趋势。流行病学模型的情景显示，更大规模的疫苗接种将有助于减少牲畜和人类的感染。S2疫苗、环境消毒以及对易感动物和人类的保护可以有效扭转布鲁氏菌病上升的趋势，并降低人类布鲁氏菌病的发病率，从而遏制中国布鲁氏菌病的流行。
