Department of medical record and statistics, People's Hospital of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Yinchuan, 750004, China.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health and management, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, 750001, China.
BMC Infect Dis. 2020 Mar 27;20(1):249. doi: 10.1186/s12879-020-4946-7.
Despite the considerable efforts made to address the issue of brucellosis worldwide, its prevalence in dairy products continues to be difficult to estimate and represents a key public health issue around the world today. The aim of the present study was to better understand the epidemiology of this disease in mainland China. We set out to investigate the yearly spatial distribution and possible hotspots of the disease.
Human brucellosis data from mainland China between 2007 and 2016 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. A geographic information system ArcGIS10.3 (ESRI, Redlands) was used to identify potential changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of human brucellosis in mainland China during the study period. These distributions were evaluated using three-dimensional trend analysis and spatial autocorrelation analyse. A gravity-center was used to analyse the migration track of human brucellosis.
A total of 399,578 cases of human brucellosis were reported during the 10-year study period. The monthly incidence of brucellosis in China demonstrates clear seasonality. Spring and summer are the peak seasons, while May is the peak month for brucellosis. Three-dimensional trend analysis suggests that brucellosis is on the rise from south to north, and that the epidemic situation in northern China is more severe. Between 2007 and 2016, the overall migration distance of the brucellosis incidence gravity-center was 906.43 km, and the direction was southwest. However, the overall gravity center of brucellosis was still in the northern part of China. In the global autocorrelation analysis, brucellosis in China demonstrated a non-random distribution between 2013 and 2014, with spatial autocorrelation (Z > 1.96, P < 0.05) and a clustering trend, while no clustering trend was found from 2007 to 2012 or from 2015 to 2016. In the local autocorrelation analysis, a Low-Low cluster phenomenon was found in the south of China in 2013 and 2014.
Human brucellosis remains a widespread challenge, particularly in northern China. The hotspots highlight potential high-risk areas which may require special plans and resources for monitoring and controlling the disease.
尽管全球范围内已经做出了相当大的努力来解决布鲁氏菌病问题，但奶制品中该病的流行率仍难以估计，目前仍是全球的一个主要公共卫生问题。本研究旨在更好地了解中国大陆地区该病的流行病学情况。我们旨在调查该病的年度空间分布和可能的热点。
从中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集了中国大陆地区 2007 年至 2016 年的人类布鲁氏菌病数据。使用地理信息系统 ArcGIS10.3（ESRI，雷德兰兹）来确定研究期间中国大陆地区人类布鲁氏菌病的空间和时间分布的潜在变化。使用三维趋势分析和空间自相关分析评估这些分布。使用重心分析人类布鲁氏菌病的迁移轨迹。
在 10 年的研究期间共报告了 399578 例人类布鲁氏菌病。中国布鲁氏菌病的月发病率具有明显的季节性。春季和夏季是高峰期，而 5 月是布鲁氏菌病的高峰月份。三维趋势分析表明，布鲁氏菌病呈从南到北上升的趋势，北方的疫情更为严重。2007 年至 2016 年间，布鲁氏菌病发病率重心的总迁移距离为 906.43 公里，方向为西南。然而，布鲁氏菌病的重心仍在中国北方。在全局自相关分析中，2013 年和 2014 年中国的布鲁氏菌病呈非随机分布，具有空间自相关（Z>1.96，P<0.05）和聚类趋势，而 2007 年至 2012 年或 2015 年至 2016 年则没有聚类趋势。在局部自相关分析中，2013 年和 2014 年中国南部出现了低-低聚集现象。
人类布鲁氏菌病仍然是一个广泛存在的挑战，尤其是在中国北方。这些热点突出了可能需要特殊监测和控制疾病的计划和资源的高风险地区。
