Liu Sijia, Hu Jiajing, Zhao Yifan, Wang Xinyan, Wang Xuemei
Inner Mongolia Medical University, Hohhot, 010110, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jan 28;15(1):3532. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-87959-9.
Brucellosis, a zoonotic infectious disease caused by the Brucella genus, remains a significant global public health concern, with Inner Mongolia, China, being a notable hotspot affecting both human health and livestock. In response to this, we developed a dynamic SEIVWSII model to simulate the transmission of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia. We calculated the basic reproduction number (R = 2.86), indicating a severe epidemic trend with cases expected to increase over the coming decades. The model was fitted to human brucellosis data, and key transmission parameters were estimated to predict future trends. We also evaluated the impact of various control measures, including vaccination, disinfection, culling, and health education. While these measures positively influence disease control, they cannot completely eliminate brucellosis, suggesting that a single control strategy is insufficient. Combining vaccination and culling proved more effective, with identified threshold values for R and to keep R < 1. Our findings indicate that a comprehensive strategy integrating vaccination, culling, disinfection, and health education is essential for effectively curbing brucellosis in Inner Mongolia, providing a strong foundation for optimizing future prevention and control strategies.
布鲁氏菌病是一种由布鲁氏菌属引起的人畜共患传染病，仍然是全球重大的公共卫生问题，中国内蒙古是影响人类健康和牲畜的一个显著热点地区。对此，我们开发了一个动态SEIVWSII模型来模拟内蒙古布鲁氏菌病的传播。我们计算了基本再生数（R = 2.86），表明存在严重的流行趋势，预计未来几十年病例数会增加。该模型与人类布鲁氏菌病数据拟合，并估计了关键传播参数以预测未来趋势。我们还评估了包括疫苗接种、消毒、扑杀和健康教育在内的各种控制措施的影响。虽然这些措施对疾病控制有积极影响，但不能完全消除布鲁氏菌病，这表明单一的控制策略是不够的。事实证明，将疫苗接种和扑杀相结合更有效，确定了R的阈值并使R < 1。我们的研究结果表明，整合疫苗接种、扑杀、消毒和健康教育的综合策略对于有效遏制内蒙古的布鲁氏菌病至关重要，为优化未来的预防和控制策略提供了坚实基础。
